Is IX a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on ORIX Corporation on The Mispricing Desk’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on IX. ORIX Corporation’s share was trading at $38.53 as of June 8th. IX’s trailing and forward P/E were 15.17 and 14.24 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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ORIX Corporation provides financial services in Japan, the United States and internationally. ORIX is presented as a mispriced Japanese financial conglomerate where the market is pricing a clean but incomplete earnings base while underappreciating both capital-return acceleration and potential earnings upside from an unmodeled investment pass-through.
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The company guided fiscal 2027 net income to JPY 530 billion, increased its annual dividend to JPY 187.36 per share, and authorized a JPY 250 billion buyback beginning May 22, 2026, equivalent to roughly 9.1% of outstanding shares, creating a clear and front-loaded shareholder return framework. Fiscal 2026 results showed net income rising 27.2% year over year to JPY 447.2 billion, reinforcing underlying momentum across its diversified portfolio spanning financial services, real estate, infrastructure, and private market investments.
Despite this, the market appears to be capitalizing only the disclosed base case while effectively assigning minimal value to a potentially material but unconfirmed contribution tied to Toshiba’s partial Kioxia stake sale, which management explicitly excluded from guidance due to timing uncertainty. At current levels near 12x forward earnings and about 1.4x book value, ORIX already offers a shareholder yield exceeding 7% from dividends and buybacks alone, before any contribution from the excluded item is considered.
On a base-case framework, combining the disclosed capital-return program, earnings trajectory, and partial multiple re-rating, ORIX supports approximately +6.9% upside from current ADR levels, with additional optionality from execution of buybacks and any incremental investment gains flowing through reported results.
The planned cancellation of treasury shares above 2% further enhances long-term per-share compounding and reduces the conglomerate discount embedded in valuation. As capital returns accelerate and visibility on the excluded earnings component improves, ORIX is positioned for a gradual re-rating toward a higher-quality financial holding multiple, with the current market still underpricing the full scope of shareholder yield and embedded upside.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) by Pacific Northwest Edge in March 2025, which highlighted the dominant banking franchise, strong deposit funding base and sustained buybacks. JPM’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 30.11% since our coverage. The Mispricing Desk shares a similar view but emphasizes mispriced conglomerate structure, capital returns and hidden earnings pass-through in ORIX Corporation (IX).
ORIX Corporation is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 9 hedge fund portfolios held IX at the end of the first quarter which was 5 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of IX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than IX and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
