Is FIZZ a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on National Beverage Corp. on Jordan’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FIZZ. National Beverage Corp.’s share was trading at $32.93 as of April 21st. FIZZ’s trailing and forward P/E were 16.93 and 16.42, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
National Beverage Corp, headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, is best known for its sparkling water portfolio anchored by LaCroix, a brand acquired in 1996 that has since developed a deeply loyal millennial consumer base. The company continues to defend and extend its niche positioning by regularly refreshing its lineup through proprietary flavors and “power brands,” aiming to sustain engagement in a category driven by taste trends and brand affinity.
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Despite operating in a competitive beverage landscape following PepsiCo’s Bubly sparkling water entry and other CPG competitors expanding into flavored water around 2018, National Beverage has maintained relevance through a differentiated operating model. A key structural advantage is its vertically integrated supply chain, which enhances responsiveness to shifting consumer preferences, reduces complexity, and allows faster iteration compared to larger, more bureaucratic peers. This agility has helped preserve shelf presence and brand equity even as category competition intensifies.
The investment thesis rests on a combination of steady revenue growth over the past decade, consistent free cash flow generation, and disciplined capital allocation, with management historically favoring shareholder returns through special dividends.
Valuation framework and normalized earnings power suggest that the equity is estimated to be worth approximately $45 per share versus a current trading price of around $35, implying a roughly 20% margin of safety. If execution remains stable in the core sparkling water category, cash generation and capital returns could support long-term value creation while preserving downside protection through its cash-flow-backed profile and resilient niche positioning.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) by Tyler Moody in September 2024, which highlighted diversified beer portfolio, valuation upside, and a defensive yield profile. TAP stock price has depreciated by approximately 21.23% since our coverage. Jordan’s Substack shares a similar view but emphasizes on National Beverage Corp’s niche sparkling water positioning, vertical integration, and shareholder returns via special dividends and free cash flow strength.
National Beverage Corp. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 18 hedge fund portfolios held FIZZ at the end of the fourth quarter which was 19 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of FIZZ as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than FIZZ and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
