Is MP a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on MP Materials Corp. on Uncle Stock Notes’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MP. MP Materials Corp.’s share was trading at $54.28 as of July 1st. MP’s trailing and forward P/E were 20.97 and 500.00 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Photo from Hycroft Mining website
MP Materials Corp., together with its subsidiaries, produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. MP is positioned as a strategically central player in the Western rare earth supply chain, leveraging its ownership of North America’s only large-scale rare earth mine at Mountain Pass alongside an expanding midstream separation capability and a developing downstream magnet manufacturing platform in Texas to create a rare end-to-end vertical integration moat.
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The company demonstrated strong operational progress in its latest quarter, with NdPr production rising 63% to 917 tons and sales increasing 117% to 1,006 tons, while adjusted EBITDA rebounded to $36.6 million, marking a clear transition from early-stage ramp-up to scaled industrial execution. A key structural support to profitability remains the Department of Defense-backed price floor agreement at $110 per kilogram, which provides downside protection while the business continues to scale and gradually shifts toward more market-driven earnings as pricing stabilizes above $100 per kilogram.
Strategically, the Texas 10X magnet facility represents the most important long-duration growth lever, targeting 7,000 tons of annual magnet capacity and supported by government commitments that enhance visibility into future demand, with meaningful revenue contribution expected closer to 2028. The company also maintains a fortress-like balance sheet with approximately $1.7 billion in liquidity, enabling it to fund its heavy capital expenditure program without near-term financing stress, even as dilution risk from convertibles and warrants remains an important structural overhang.
Near-term volatility reflects market expectations already discounting significant execution success across mining, separation, and magnetization phases, but the long-term investment thesis remains anchored in vertically integrated supply chain dominance, strategic national importance, and the optionality embedded in heavy rare earth production and downstream magnet scaling, positioning MP Materials for substantial upside over a multi-year horizon as execution risk gradually de-risks and the full value of its integrated platform becomes more visible and sustainably monetized.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on MP Materials Corp. (MP) by Steve_Zissouu in April 2025, which highlighted U.S. supply-chain decoupling from China, government-backed critical minerals policy support, and MP’s strategic shift toward domestic rare earth processing after halting shipments to China. MP’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 134.06% since our coverage. Uncle Stock Notes shares a similar view but emphasizes operational execution, EBITDA recovery, and the emerging value of vertical integration through the Texas 10X magnet plant.
MP Materials Corp. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 52 hedge fund portfolios held MP at the end of the first quarter which was 53 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of MP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MP and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
