Is MDA a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on MDA Space Ltd. on r/ValueInvesting by Disastrous-Rent7438. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MDA. MDA Space Ltd.’s share was trading at $39.40 as of June 18th. MDA’s trailing and forward P/E were 68.94 and 38.31 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
MDA Space is a Canadian space technology company that remains undervalued despite strong execution, a profitable profile, and exposure to multiple secular growth drivers in the global space economy. It operates across Satellite Systems, Robotics, and Geointelligence, with Satellite Systems as core growth engine driving most revenue and backlog through large-scale satellite manufacturing programs.
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It benefits from a differentiated position as the largest third-party software-defined satellite manufacturer, supported by its AURORA production line in Montreal and vertically integrated SatixFy capabilities enabling high-throughput production. Demand visibility is anchored by major multi-billion-dollar contracts such as Telesat Lightspeed and Globalstar, alongside defense and sovereign constellation opportunities. Financials have accelerated meaningfully, with revenue rising from 807.6 million in 2023 to 1.63 billion in 2025, adjusted EBITDA reaching 324 million, and leverage falling to 0.4 times net debt to EBITDA.
Margins have compressed to roughly 20 percent adjusted EBITDA as lower-margin manufacturing scales highlighting trade-off between rapid growth and profitability. The most significant upside comes from management’s ambition to build 8,000 to 15,000 satellites over the next decade at 10 million per unit, implying a potential 80 to 150 billion revenue opportunity. Even under conservative assumptions long-term trajectory suggests material undervaluation relative to current market expectations and highlights asymmetry in investment case.
Risks include customer concentration, reliance on large anchor programs, and near-term free cash flow volatility offset by strong backlog visibility and improving balance sheet. Overall MDA Space represents a high-conviction long-duration compounder within new space economy with meaningful rerating potential as execution continues.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) by Steve Wagner in April 2025, which highlighted strong backlog visibility, steady earnings growth, margin expansion across segments, and strategic ISR expansion through acquisitions. LMT’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 9.45% since our coverage. Disastrous-Rent7438 shares a similar view but emphasizes a higher-growth space manufacturing opportunity where satellite-driven scale and 80–150 billion revenue potential create a more asymmetric upside.
MDA Space Ltd. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 23 hedge fund portfolios held MDA at the end of the first quarter which was 0 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of MDA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than MDA and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
