Is CART a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Maplebear Inc. on Fermat’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CART. Maplebear Inc.’s share was trading at $42.43 as of June 8th. CART’s trailing and forward P/E were 23.04 and 16.13 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Maplebear Inc. (CART) operates a four-sided eGrocery platform connecting consumers, shoppers, grocers, and advertisers, generating revenue primarily through transaction commissions and take-rates, alongside a smaller advertising component that has lagged prior expectations.
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The bullish thesis argues that as eGrocery enters a consolidation phase, the market is structurally predisposed toward third-party platform dominance due to the logistical complexity of perishables, fragmented store-level inventory, and inherent diseconomies of scale that constrain first-party models such as Amazon and Walmart.
CART is positioned as the leading beneficiary of this shift, supported by its dense shopper network, deep grocer integrations, and a reinforcing flywheel built around large-basket order dominance, which represents the most economically attractive segment of grocery demand. The thesis emphasizes that large-basket orders, which account for the majority of grocery spend, are more resilient, higher margin, and less price sensitive, allowing CART to extract superior unit economics as order density increases.
This density improves shopper utilization, reduces per-order costs, and enhances picking accuracy, reinforcing a self-reinforcing cycle of efficiency and customer retention. Over time, this is expected to enable expansion from large-basket strength into smaller convenience orders, widening total platform capture. Despite concerns around Amazon and Walmart, the analysis argues that first-party models face structural limitations in cold-chain logistics, substitution management, and cost scalability, preventing sustained price undercutting in perishables.
Growth is framed as constrained by behavioral adoption dynamics rather than market saturation, with penetration still early across high-income suburban households that drive a disproportionate share of grocery spend. On profitability, consensus is seen as underestimating operating leverage, with improving density and fixed-cost absorption supporting meaningful margin expansion above current expectations.
The shift in management focus away from an ad-centric narrative toward core grocery partnerships is viewed as supportive of more durable execution. The bull case outlines a path to approximately $90 per share by FY28, implying a ~33% three-year IRR, driven by sustained high-single-digit growth and expanding margins, with potential for further rerating as earnings power becomes clearer.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Maplebear Inc. (CART) by Chit Chat Stocks’ Substack in May 2025, which highlighted Instacart’s dominant third-party grocery delivery position, strong advertising growth, and asset-light high-margin model supported by retail media expansion. CART’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 9.76% since our coverage. Fermat’s Substack shares a similar view but emphasizes large-basket dominance, structural 3P advantages, and first-party logistics constraints as key drivers of long-term upside and rerating potential.
Maplebear Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 58 hedge fund portfolios held CART at the end of the first quarter which was 50 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CART as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CART and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
