Is IONQ a good stock to buy? We came across a bearish thesis on IonQ, Inc. on X.com by @WolfpackReports. In this article, we will summarize the bears’ thesis on IONQ. IonQ, Inc.’s share was trading at $48.32 as of April 20th.
IonQ, Inc. develops quantum computing systems in the United States, Switzerland, and other countries. IONQ has faced a dramatic unraveling of its business model, prompting a bearish outlook. In 2025, the company lost critical Pentagon funding that had historically accounted for up to 86% of its revenues between 2022 and 2024, leaving a $54.6 million shortfall in bookings. This funding collapse coincided with the resignation of CEO Chapman and insider stock sales totaling $396.6 million.
The FY 2026 budget confirms that Pentagon support has again been withheld, and it has emerged that previous contracts were never formally requested but were instead facilitated through politically driven backdoor earmarks, which are no longer in place. $IONQ had inflated 2024 bookings with $75.6 million in Pentagon contracts, of which only $21 million was funded, a discrepancy not disclosed to investors.
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The new CEO de Masi canceled these bookings by March 5 and shifted the company toward non-quantum acquisitions, including Capella, Vector Atomics, ID Quantique, and, most recently $SKYT, undermining $IONQ’s positioning as a quantum computing pure play. These acquisitions have driven cash flow from operations further negative, from -$33 million in Q4 2024 to -$123.1 million in Q3 2025, leaving retail investors exposed.
Additional initiatives, like the $22 million “quantum innovation center” with EPB, appear artificially financed, obscuring the true financial risk. Moreover, $IONQ failed to advance in the DARPA quantum competition, despite previously leveraging Pentagon contracts to claim commercial credibility, and later acquired Oxford Ionics for $1.596 billion while misrepresenting progress. Overall, IONQ’s reliance on unstable government funding, aggressive dilution, and diversion into low-quality non-quantum businesses highlight substantial operational, financial, and governance risks, painting a highly bearish picture for investors.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) by Maestroszq in October 2024, which highlighted the company’s leadership in quantum computing, rapid revenue growth, strong patent portfolio, and upcoming launch of scalable quantum systems. IONQ’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 345.75% since our coverage. WolfpackReports shares a contrarian view but emphasizes the loss of Pentagon funding, CEO turnover, insider selling, and shift into non-quantum acquisitions, highlighting significant operational and financial risks.
IonQ, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 28 hedge fund portfolios held IONQ at the end of the fourth quarter which was 30 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of IONQ as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than IONQ and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
