Is HOG a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Harley-Davidson, Inc. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by militiaman. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HOG. Harley-Davidson, Inc.’s share was trading at $24.18 as of May 29th. HOG’s trailing and forward P/E were 12.53 and 20.83 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. HOG is presented as a deeply undervalued American iconic motorcycle manufacturer, trading at a market capitalization of under $1.9 billion and an adjusted enterprise value of below $700–900 million after deconsolidating Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) and factoring in expected near-term dividends.
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The bullish thesis argues that the market is mispricing the underlying Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) by failing to properly separate HDFS and LiveWire from core operations, thereby obscuring a strong balance sheet with over $900 million in net cash and meaningful embedded asset value. With the potential receipt of an additional ~$250 million dividend from HDFS in Q1 2026, the enterprise value could further compress, strengthening the already compelling valuation backdrop.
The core investment case is supported by improving operational leadership under new CEO Artie Starrs, who is actively reversing prior strategic missteps, repairing dealer relationships, reintroducing entry-level motorcycles, and refocusing brand positioning toward core riders. This shift is expected to stabilize demand and restore growth in HDMC, which historically generated $3.7–$4.0 billion in revenue with EBITDA margins recovering toward 10%. Meanwhile, prior capital allocation actions, including HDFS loan sales to KKR and PIMCO, have unlocked over $1.25 billion in cash, enabling debt reduction, buybacks, and improved financial flexibility.
Additional upside catalysts include aggressive share repurchases, insider buying, and potential strategic actions such as a continued review of HDFS and restructuring of LiveWire, which is expected to be wound down given persistent losses. A sum-of-the-parts valuation suggests HDMC alone could be worth around $40 per share versus recent trading levels near $17–19, implying upside well in excess of 100%.
Even on a conservative liquidation basis, intrinsic value is estimated above current prices, providing a strong margin of safety. With high short interest, improving fundamentals, Harley-Davidson presents a high-conviction setup with asymmetric upside driven by valuation rerating, operational recovery, and capital return acceleration.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) by Business Model Mastery’s Substack in May 2025, which highlighted its vertically integrated brand ecosystem, high-margin parts and financing loop, and strong customer lifetime value. HOG’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 2.14% since our coverage. militiaman shares a similar view but emphasizes on sum-of-the-parts undervaluation, deconsolidated balance sheet strength, and catalysts from restructuring and capital returns.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held HOG at the end of the first quarter which was 37 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of HOG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than HOG and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
