Is XOM a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Exxon Mobil Corporation on Trevor Young’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on XOM. Exxon Mobil Corporation’s share was trading at $147.68 as of April 20th. XOM’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.04 and 14.49 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. XOM has emerged in early 2026 as what analysts are calling the first “Megamajor” in the oil industry, positioning itself as a cornerstone for defensive investors seeking stability, strong cash flow, and reliable dividends.
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The company’s transformative acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources has created a Permian powerhouse, combining Pioneer’s vast Midland Basin acreage with Exxon’s technology to deliver record-breaking upstream production.
In Q4 2025, Exxon reached its highest production levels in over 40 years, averaging 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, while the low-cost Pioneer assets provide a supply cost below $35 per barrel, insulating the company from price volatility. Looking ahead, short-cycle barrels, which can be rapidly adjusted to market conditions, are expected to comprise over 40% of total production by 2027, adding operational flexibility.
Exxon’s disciplined capital allocation reinforces its “Dividend Aristocrat” status, with a 2.7% yield, a payout ratio around 58%, and an 11% return on equity, underscoring its ability to reward patient shareholders consistently. Beyond oil, Exxon is strategically expanding into low-carbon solutions, leveraging its engineering expertise to future-proof its business. Carbon capture projects under contract total roughly 9 million metric tons, while major CCS initiatives with partners like Linde and Nucor are set to launch in 2026.
The company is also investing $20 billion through 2030 in lithium and hydrogen initiatives, gradually entering the battery supply chain. By combining operational scale, cost efficiency, dividend reliability, and a proactive energy transition strategy, ExxonMobil offers a compelling risk-adjusted investment for 2026, serving both as a stable cash-generating “Safe Atom” and a forward-looking energy company poised to navigate market and regulatory shifts effectively.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) by Magnus Ofstad in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s low-cost Permian Basin assets, diversified chemical and midstream segments, and carbon capture initiatives. OXY’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 26.57% since our coverage. Trevor Young shares a similar view but emphasizes ExxonMobil’s scale as a “Megamajor,” record production, short-cycle flexibility, disciplined dividends, and aggressive low-carbon investments, positioning XOM as a stable, forward-looking energy company.
Exxon Mobil Corporation is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 98 hedge fund portfolios held XOM at the end of the fourth quarter which was 93 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of XOM as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than XOM and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
