Is CRCL a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Circle Internet Group on Artemis Big Fundamentals’s Substack by Lucas Shin. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CRCL. Circle Internet Group’s share was trading at $106.36 as of April 20th. CRCL’s forward P/E was 101.01 according to Yahoo Finance.
Circle Internet Group ($CRCL) is emerging as a foundational player in the expanding stablecoin ecosystem, though the market continues to misprice it as a rate-sensitive proxy rather than a structural growth business. The company issues USDC, a dollar-backed stablecoin whose supply grew 72% in 2025 to $75.3 billion despite declining interest rates, highlighting that adoption is increasingly driven by real-world utility across payments, DeFi, and financial infrastructure.
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Circle generates revenue primarily from reserve income on USDC holdings, but its long-term growth is supported by both rising stablecoin penetration and new transaction-driven revenue streams. The total stablecoin market is projected to reach ~$1.5 trillion by 2030, with USDC maintaining a ~22–25% share, implying a ~4.5x increase in supply. This scale effect is expected to offset declining yields, driving reserve income growth to ~$9.2 billion.
A key driver of diversification is the Circle Payments Network (CPN), a cross-border settlement platform already gaining traction with financial institutions and projected to generate $350 million in revenue by 2030. This reduces reliance on interest rates while reinforcing Circle’s role in global payments infrastructure. Additionally, the rise of agentic commerce—where AI systems autonomously execute transactions—positions stablecoins as a core settlement layer, with USDC already dominating early adoption.
While risks remain, including Coinbase dependency, rate sensitivity, and increasing competition from white-label and institutional stablecoins, Circle benefits from deep liquidity, regulatory positioning, and strong distribution. Overall, the company presents a compelling investment case, with base-case projections implying ~$1.8 billion in net income and ~83% upside, driven by supply-led growth and expanding use cases.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) by Sergey in May 2025, which highlighted EPS growth, Venmo and BNPL momentum, AI-driven payment innovations, and international expansion. PYPL’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 22.40% since our coverage as revenue and payment-volume growth slowed while competition intensified across the digital payments ecosystem, leading investors to reset long-term growth expectations.. Lucas Shin shares a similar view but emphasizes Circle Internet Group’s (CRCL) stablecoin-driven growth, supported by USDC supply expansion, reserve income, and the Circle Payments Network.
Circle Internet Group is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 58 hedge fund portfolios held CRCL at the end of the fourth quarter which was 29 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CRCL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CRCL and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
