Is ASML a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on ASML Holding N.V. on Grillo Insights’s Substack by Eric García. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASML. ASML Holding N.V.’s share was trading at $1,458.97 as of April 21st. ASML’s trailing and forward P/E were 48.06 and 41.15 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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ASML Holding N.V. delivered a highly bullish set of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, reinforcing its position as the most critical enabler of the global artificial intelligence semiconductor buildout. ASML Holding N.V., the world’s only provider of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography systems, sits at the core of advanced chip manufacturing, enabling production of leading-edge semiconductors used in AI accelerators, high-performance computing, and next-generation consumer devices.
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In 2025, the company reported net sales of 32.7 billion euros, up 16% year over year, and net income of 9.6 billion euros, up 27%, reflecting both accelerating demand and strong profitability. The most powerful signal in the report was bookings, which reached 13.2 billion euros in Q4 alone, with EUV systems contributing 7.4 billion euros, an 86% increase year over year, confirming that AI-driven capex from leading foundries is intensifying rather than slowing.
ASML Holding N.V. closed 2025 with a record backlog of 38.8 billion euros, including 25.5 billion euros in EUV systems, providing 18–24 months of revenue visibility and significantly de-risking near-term earnings. EUV system sales surged 391% to 11.6 billion euros, driven by 48 system deliveries and early High-NA adoption, reinforcing ASML’s technological monopoly and widening its competitive moat. Gross margins remained strong at 52.8%, with 2026 guidance of 51–53%, highlighting durable pricing power even amid mix shifts.
The Installed Base Management segment added further strength, generating 8.2 billion euros in recurring, high-margin revenue, up 26%, transforming ASML into a more predictable, annuity-like business as its installed EUV fleet expands. Free cash flow of 11.0 billion euros enabled 8.5 billion euros in shareholder returns while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
Despite China exposure normalizing lower, demand from AI leaders like TSMC and Samsung remains robust. With 2026 revenue guidance of 34–39 billion euros and long-term targets of 44–60 billion euros, ASML Holding N.V. remains a structurally dominant, highly cash-generative AI infrastructure compounder.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) by Monopolistic Investor in May 2025, which highlighted EUV technology moat, pricing power, and government backing. ASML’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 95.43% since our coverage. Eric García shares a similar view but emphasizes AI-driven demand acceleration, record bookings, backlog visibility, and strong 2025 financial performance.
ASML Holding N.V. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 101 hedge fund portfolios held ASML at the end of the fourth quarter which was 82 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ASML as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ASML and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
