Is APO a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Apollo Global Management, Inc. on Elliot’s Musings’s Substack by Elliot. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on APO. Apollo Global Management, Inc.’s share was trading at $127.33 as of April 20th. APO’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.98 and 13.89 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a private equity firm specializing in investments in credit, private equity, infrastructure, secondaries and real estate markets. APO is trading at approximately $115, roughly 30% below its late-2025 highs and at a 13x trailing DE multiple, despite reporting record results across all business segments. The recent de-rating reflects broad narrative fears in the alternative asset management space—private credit, software exposure, retail liquidity stress, and insurance earnings durability—but these sector-level concerns do not map onto Apollo’s actual portfolio.
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Software credit exposure is minimal, representing less than 2% of AUM and only 0.5% of Athene’s balance sheet, with the BDC software loan book contributing an estimated 3% of management fees, far below peers like Blue Owl or Blackstone. Retail-facing non-traded BDCs are a small portion of firmwide fees (~7%), and Apollo’s growth engine is predominantly institutional, insulated from sentiment-driven redemption cycles. Its private equity exposure to software is also negligible, with a value-oriented industrial focus generating high realized returns.
The insurance segment, Athene, drives roughly 58% of APO’s adjusted net income through spread-related earnings (SRE), supported by long-duration, largely non-surrenderable liabilities, top-tier ratings, and a $292 billion invested base that compounds contractual spreads. Historical lapse experience and capital adequacy (RBC 441%) mitigate the risk of spread compression, while 2026 guidance projects continued SRE growth. Fee-related earnings (FRE) are growing at ~20%, fueled by $309 billion of origination across 16 platforms and $808 million of capital solutions fees, creating a structurally durable, vertically integrated credit franchise.
A sum-of-the-parts valuation assigns 20x 2027E FRE ($120/share) and 10x 2027E SRE ($65/share), yielding $185/share or roughly 70% upside from current levels. The market misprices APO as highly exposed to software and retail BDC stress while undervaluing the resilient, contractually-backed insurance earnings and high-growth fee business. Even factoring cyclical, acquisition, or governance risks, APO presents a compelling risk/reward, combining durable cash flows with substantial upside potential over the next 2–3 years.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) by Kroker Equity Research in February 2025, highlighting its diversified AUM, strong inflows, strategic acquisitions, and the Aladdin® platform. BLK’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 5.68% since our coverage due to d market volatility and rate uncertainty. Elliot of Elliot’s Musings shares a similar view but emphasizes Apollo Global Management, Inc.’s (APO) durable insurance earnings and undervaluation.
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 74 hedge fund portfolios held APO at the end of the fourth quarter which was 80 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of APO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than APO and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
