Is AXP a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on American Express Company on r/ValueInvesting by Vig_Newtons. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AXP. American Express Company’s share was trading at $329.87 as of April 20th. AXP’s trailing and forward P/E were 21.45 and 18.83 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States and internationally. AXP appears mispriced at current levels following a ~19.5% year-to-date decline, driven largely by concerns that premium consumers are weakening and that AI could pressure the white-collar workforce underpinning its customer base, alongside a minor $0.03 EPS miss and a slight 0.2% guidance trim. However, a closer look at fundamentals suggests resilience.
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The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $72.2 billion, up 10% year-over-year, with EPS growing 15% (excluding prior-year gains), while net card fees reached a record $10 billion, marking 30 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Importantly, its core high-income customer segment remains strong, with U.S. 30-day delinquency rates at 1.3%, below the 20-year average of 1.5%, and nearly 75% of new cards issued being fee-bearing.
Spending trends also remain robust, with Q4 billed business up 10% FX-adjusted, alongside strength in luxury retail (+15%), international spending (+12%), restaurants (+9%), and retail (+10%). While U.S. small- and mid-sized business spending remains a modest weak spot at ~2% growth, it accounts for only about 22% of revenue, with the remaining 78% delivering record performance.
With a 34% ROE—roughly three times peer averages—and $7.6 billion returned to shareholders, American Express continues to demonstrate strong profitability and capital returns. Even modest execution on its 2026 guidance of ~10% revenue growth and $17.30–$17.90 EPS supports a compelling bullish case.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on American Express Company (AXP) by Max Dividends and Serhio MaxDividends in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s dividend growth, premium customer base, and strong capital returns driven by its integrated payments model. AXP’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 11.37% since our coverage. Vig_Newtons shares a similar view but emphasizes on mispricing driven by short-term concerns despite resilient fundamentals.
American Express Company is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 83 hedge fund portfolios held AXP at the end of the fourth quarter which was 75 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of AXP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AXP and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
