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Is Alphabet’s Search Risk Really Priced In? Stress-Testing Rosenblatt’s $410 Thesis

Has Wall Street stopped panicking about AI chatbots destroying Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL)’s traditional search business? On August 19, Analyst Scott Devitt initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating, noting how concerns around Search have largely played out. However, declaring a multi-year risk narrative to be effectively over is a bold assertion worth stress testing.

What the Data Shows  

The data shows Google controls 90% of the search market. However, the risk still looms as people often turn to chatbots to search for information. Against this backdrop, the company has redesigned the search box for the first time in 25 years, placing the “AI Mode” button directly in the box.

To discuss things deeper, Alphabet’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) second-quarter report earlier buried the search figure under two louder storylines. These include a $99 billion paper gain on its equity stakes, and an increase in capital spending plans. However, the numbers are there to decipher.

In the second quarter, Google Search & other revenue grew 17% year over year to $63.3 billion, down from 19% growth in the prior quarter and slightly behind expectations. Search was on a growth streak previously, accelerating from 10% in the first quarter of 2025 to 12% in the second quarter, 15% in the third, 17% in the fourth, and 19% in the first quarter of 2026. However, second quarter of 2026 snapped it.

“Considering Google’s search revenue for the second quarter came in at $63.3 billion, slightly behind Wall Street’s expectations of $63.4 billion, and investors will likely be scrutinizing the business in the third quarter.”

17% is still a great number though, which doesn’t really prove that Search is slowing down. The argument is more about the coming years. Google isn’t letting its customers migrate anyway. Its AI overviews, AI Mode, and Gemini have been expanding the type of queries its ecosystem handles.

Google’s Gemini traffic has surged, surpassing 1 billion monthly active users by August 2026 and becoming the fastest growing product in its history.

Cloud: The Stronger Part of the Thesis

Google’s Cloud revenue surged 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion, while segment operating income more than tripled from $2.8 billion to $8.8 billion. No wonder Rosenblatt believes Cloud will sustain momentum and that it will support the next leg of multiple expansion. The firm sees capacity expansion and greater TPU monetization beyond 2027 helping to scale operating profit dollars ahead of expectations.

In effect, it sees Cloud deceleration as a key risk rather than any new Search risk that may arise.

Verdict

As per Insider Monkey’s database, 265 hedge fund holders held stake in the stock at the end of the first quarter, down from 288 in the previous quarter. According to more recent Q2 fillings, institutional interest continues in Alphabet, with Berkshire Hathaway holding roughly 78.8 million shares worth about $28.2 billion. Fisher Asset Management and Arrowstreet Capital also reported multi-billion dollar positions.

Overall, Alphabet is rightly being considered as a leading hyperscaler in the AI cycle. However, the assumption that search risk has largely played out seems oversimplified. The stronger version of the bull case is that Alphabet has built real optionality in the risk that threatened it. Meanwhile, its infrastructure business is accelerating at a meaningful pace.

While we acknowledge the risk and potential of GOOGL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than GOOGL and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: NVIDIA (NVDA): What Foxconn and Super Micro Are Telling Us about the AI Boom  and Snowflake (SNOW) Stock: AI Growth Is Real, But Is the Valuation Already Priced In?

Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News

The $250 Trillion AI Hype is Real. A few years from now, you’ll probably wish you’d bought this stock.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard.

Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences.

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000.

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Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

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