Is ABVX a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on ABIVAX Société Anonyme on R. Dennis’s Substack by OppCost. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ABVX. ABIVAX Société Anonyme’s share was trading at $133.26 as of June 30th.
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ABIVAX Société Anonyme, a clinical-stage biotechnology company, develops therapeutics that harness the body’s natural regulatory mechanisms to stabilize the immune response in patients with chronic inflammatory diseases. ABVX is being positioned in a bullish options-driven trade that argues the market has materially mispriced both the efficacy and safety profile of its lead asset following a sharp post-news selloff.
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The catalyst was the company’s Phase 3 ABTECT maintenance readout, which delivered approximately 50.8% and 51.3% clinical remission rates at 25 mg and 50 mg versus 10.4% on placebo, a roughly 40-point placebo-adjusted benefit described by multiple analysts as best-in-disease for long-term ulcerative colitis.
Despite this, the stock declined around 44% in a single session after a malignancy signal in the higher-dose arm, before recovering toward the ~$101–102 range, creating the setup for a July 2026 call spread positioning. The bull case argues the safety concern has been overstated, noting that most reported cases were non-melanoma skin cancers in an older cohort, with mean age skewing significantly higher than the trial population, while colonic dysplasia aligns with underlying ulcerative colitis pathology and investigators did not attribute several events to treatment.
This compresses the feared “seven cancers” narrative into a much narrower set of ambiguous signals, weakening the bear interpretation. Importantly, even if a boxed warning were ultimately required, comparable therapies like AbbVie’s Rinvoq have generated roughly $8.3 billion in annual sales despite extensive safety labeling, suggesting commercial viability remains intact. Abivax’s mechanism as a miR-124 enhancer also showed infection and discontinuation profiles broadly comparable to placebo, reinforcing differentiation from higher-risk JAK classes.
Near-term upside is supported by an upcoming additional safety dataset expected within weeks, which could materially resolve the overhang within the option’s life. On valuation, Street targets cluster around $147–187, with some DCF frameworks implying $115 base and up to $210 bull case, while M&A chatter referencing potential ~$18 billion interest from large pharmas provides an additional re-rating anchor. The spread structure reflects a bet that sentiment normalizes toward the prior ~$129 gap area, with upside extending toward consensus valuation bands.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP) by MADD-Scientis in March 2025, which highlighted Casgevy commercialization, pipeline optionality, and gene-editing upside. CRSP’s stock price has appreciated by 33.12% since our coverage. OppCost shares a similar view but emphasizes ABIVAX Société Anonyme (ABVX) post-selloff ABTECT safety overreaction mispricing, supporting re-rating toward $147–187 and upside up to ~$210 bull.
ABIVAX Société Anonyme is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 69 hedge fund portfolios held ABVX at the end of the first quarter which was 72 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ABVX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ABVX and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
