International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jay Royalty: Hey Mark, good morning, this is Jay. So we’re working through the early stages of the transition and obviously there’s a winddown that is underway as we speak. It’s not down at this point. We do have to transition business and transition customers and work through all of the dynamics, but it did all of that will be complete in the fourth quarter. So we would expect to see that type of EBITDA impact fully recognized in 2024.

Mark Weiintraub: Okay, super, thank you. And then maybe just a little bit of color. You talked about the export, containerboard export business getting better. And to a certain extent that sort of led us down and we have much more price erosion there than in the domestic business. Maybe if you could just provide a little bit more color on what you’re seeing there. And are we, I mean, again, pulp and paper, we posted prices lower in their review of what was going on with export pricing. Can you give us your perspective on what’s happening kind of real time in those markets?

Jay Royalty: Sure, Mark. This is Jay again. And if you go back to the last call, we spoke about starting to see some improvement in the export markets. And that definitely continued in the third quarter. So when you think about the major markets, we serve Latin America, Europe, Asia. We’ve seen inventories normalize in all of those markets at this point and we see demand continue to improve. Latin America continues to be very solid as we sell in the second quarter and that’s being driven by bananas and pineapples, melons, these types of products. So very resilient. Europe, we saw a shift in a positive direction in the third quarter, rebounding. And that’s been a fruit and vegetable driven as well, really in anticipation of a much better agricultural season beginning in early ‘24, late ‘23, early ‘24 versus last year.

Asia is the market that continues to lag a bit but we’re seeing recovery there as well. And so when you look at all of that and look through the fourth quarter, we see strong quarter bucks all the way through the end of the year. So we believe we’ve seen demand bottom and the outlook is certainly more encouraging.

Mark Weiintraub: Okay, great. I recognize you guys aren’t going to forecast prices here but it doesn’t seem that this demand improvement has translated yet into better pricing. Is that a function of more supply out there chasing this business? Or any color you could help us with in that regard?

Jay Royalty: Yes, I mean you have to see demand improvement to see the market turn. We’re seeing that. There still is a supply demand imbalance, but that’s shifting both because of actions that are being taken on the supply side as you know about and also this demand improvement. So at this point, we’re as I said, we think we’ve seen demand bottom, the outlook’s more encouraging. We’ll see where it goes from here.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland from Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland: Thank you, Mark, Tim. And Mark for taking my questions. Just have one quick follow up on the Orange Texas closure. I do appreciate Jay’s comments around that mill. But I do believe you mentioned a few quarters ago that a permanent capacity adjustment was not on the horizon. So I’m wondering what’s transpired and what’s happened in the last few quarters that has changed your approach? And then to think about your portfolio more broadly, to the extent you can comment and realizing that it may be difficult on this type of forum, but are there additional similar opportunities to further rationalize your portfolio?