International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Tim Nicholls: Yes, we showed it at the second quarter and then third quarter actuals, and now we’ve given a fourth quarter outlook. And but the short answer is there’s no material change in any of the categories that we provided a full year, a full year outlook for. We’re still solidly in the EBITDA range, right in line with capital and cash flow the same way.

Anthony Pettinari: Okay, that’s helpful. And then in terms of box shipments, can you talk about the cadence of North American box volumes, maybe during the quarter and then touch on the trends in October? And then I think seasonally, there’s usually like a little bit of an uptick in September. Did you see demand that you think was stronger than normal seasonality or how would you sort of describe that dynamic?

Tom Hamic : Hey, Anthony. This is Tom Hamic. Just in terms of demand, we troughed or had a trough in Q1 like Q4. We’ve seen continued improvement from that time and that lasted through Q3. So we felt very good about the improvement through Q3. A lot of segments seem to stabilize in Q3 and we think they’re going to improve in Q4. So think about beverage and processed food. Really strong stabilization in Q3, improvement into Q4. E-commerce, stabilization in Q3, improvement into Q4. So we feel good about the trend. I think you asked about October. We’re very close. If you look at the order book, which is the best way of kind of looking forward, especially when you’ve got a month like October that can be a little bit misleading.

I would put the order book growth at about 3% to 4%. And so we think that’s going to improve as we go through the quarter. That’s a sequential number. So think 4% to 5% for the quarter sequentially. So we see these segments in the market continuing to improve.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America.

George Staphos: Thanks. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. And given the announcements earlier in the quarter as well, just want to wish everyone the best during the management transition and Mark, especially to you for your leadership over this period. I wanted to go back to the deal heatmap slide, the outlook slide, and just make sure that we’ve got this correctly. So given our very quick tally of what you mentioned, Tim, are we — are you suggesting EBITDA and I haven’t done the rough and ready for cellulose fibers is, perhaps below breakeven and overall that we might be somewhere in the 400s relative to the to where we were in the third quarter. And then the second question that I had in terms of businesses and profitability, Europe is not your largest business.

You’ve been there for a while. It generated about a 10% EBITDA margin. It’s still relatively small. Strategically, how do you see that business mark over time? Are you happy with the profitability and what’s its real role within the IP portfolio? And then I had one or two other follow-ups.

Tim Nicholls: Yes, hey, George, it’s Tim. So yes, I think generally speaking, you’re in the zip code of how we’re thinking about the fourth quarter. Of course, the IR team will talk you through all of the essentials and everything. But I think ballpark, it sounds like you’re close. And with your –

Mark Sutton: Yes. On the EMEA question, we like the business. We don’t like the absolute performance, but we have doubled the earnings from ‘22 to ‘23 after they were hit so hard with high natural gas costs. And we’ve made some very successful single plan acquisitions over the last couple of years that’s really built the density around the Madrid container board bill. So we view our Europe business as a regional strategy. It’s mostly southern Europe. We think there’s growth opportunity, but it’s largely going to continue to come in that region. We think it has a long-term growth potential. It’s a very attractive market. EBITDA margins to get good returns in Europe. George, remember, can be a bit lower than we’re used to seeing in the U.S. because of the mill structure being mostly recycled.