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International Paper Company (IP), Tenneco Inc (TEN): 4 Stocks From the 2009 “Sucker’s Rally” That Kept Soaring

Trailing-12-month earnings per share in 2009: ($2.00)

Most recent TTM earnings per share: $1.40

Debt-to-cash ratio in 2009: 0.4

Most recent debt-to-cash ratio: 0.8

Total return from start of crash to today: 42%

Thomas Ryan also had negative things to say about this company in the same article:

This rally is going to end in tears for those who hold on for too long. At some point reality will take hold, and there will be almost no place to hide. … Many stocks were trading as if they were going into bankruptcy … particularly in the consumer discretionary and retail space. The opportunities that existed have disappeared with the rally. 101 stocks [in Ryan’s screener] have advanced more than 500% since this time. [One of the] the biggest winners … Dana Holdings, up 2,230%. The net income of [this company] for the previous 12 months [was] negative $684 million.

Dana, like Tenneco Inc (NYSE:TEN), is a smaller auto-parts manufacturer that enjoyed nearly all of its meteoric growth between the end of the Dow’s crash in 2009 and the start of 2011. It’s grown much more than Tenneco despite a slower uptick in earnings per share over the post-crash period, in part because it had less debt to contend with. In fact, the company exited bankruptcy and returned to public markets at the start of the crash, and thus had a fairly hefty cash hoard and a streamlined balance sheet with which to hold the fort in the recession’s darkest days. Even at the lowest point of the recession, Dana was still generating $5.2 billion in annual revenue, which was down from nearly $9 billion just before the crash started. Today, the company generates $7.2 billion — but its profit margin is now consistently higher than it’s ever been.

What happened to Sirius XM?

Trailing-12-month earnings per share in 2009: ($2.45)

Most recent TTM earnings per share: $0.51

Debt-to-cash ratio in 2009: 8.5

Most recent debt-to-cash ratio: 4.7

Total return from start of crash to today: (7%)

On Sept. 10, 2009, the Fool’s Rick Munarriz, a longtime Sirius XM bull, wrote:

I’m going to throw some numbers at you. See if you can guess what they are:

2006: 3.2 million

2007: 4.4 million

2008: 6.1 million

Net subscriber additions? You wish. Howard Stern fans who have migrated to satellite radio? Not quite. We’re looking at the number of combined Sirius and XM subscribers who cancelled their service.

As great as satellite radio may be, 6.1 million accounts — more than a third of its base at the start of 2008 — deactivated. Some listeners can’t pay. Some simply won’t. … Several aspects of Sirius XM’s model have already peaked:

The sheer number of net subscriber additions topped out in 2006.

Retail subscriber totals maxed out in 2007.

Overall subscribers hit a peak in 2008.

By this point, Sirius had already rebounded 356% from the end of Dow’s slide. To his credit, Rick also offered several reasons not to worry about the satellite-radio provider that same day.

Sirius was fighting for its life under a mountain of debt and subscriber defections in 2009, but it has since exceeded the expectations of all but the most bullish of 2009’s speculative bulls. Its most recent quarter showed record revenue and subscriber numbers — a 75% increase on the former and a 26% increase in the latter metric since the end of the recession. Debt has also been reduced by 20% since the end of the crash, and much of the rest has been refinanced at better interest rates. Not only is Sirius growing, but it’s also generating more revenue (and profit, which Sirius reached at the end of 2010) from each subscriber even as Internet radio continues to bleed cash with every new subscriber. The company’s stock is now very near its all-time highs, which should soon be within reach as long as it maintains this positive momentum.

The article 4 Stocks From the 2009 “Sucker’s Rally” That Kept Soaring originally appeared on

Fool contributor Alex Planes and The Motley Fool have no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

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