Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And that now looks like it’s been deferred probably until sometime next year. Now obviously, we remain, as we now do on an ongoing basis, committed to those businesses. We continue to invest and really position ourselves for the inevitable recovery down the road, which hopefully comes next year in 2024 and making sure that we’re well positioned to take full advantage of the long-term growth opportunities that we believe are right in front of us in that part of our businesses, so.

Andrew Obin: Got you. And then maybe you’ve answered this question as you talked about the business overall, but in Construction Products and Polymers & Fluids, the changes in variable margin cost was a material benefit to margin year-over-year and has been year-to-date. Anything specific that you’re doing in these businesses and how much more runway is there?

Michael Larsen: Well, there’s a lot of work that’s going on in those businesses to deliver these results. Obviously, I’d say the categories you’re familiar with, the first one is the ongoing contribution from the enterprise initiatives. And so both the segments that you mentioned had a significant contribution from enterprise initiatives as well as favorable price/cost impact. So those are really the two big drivers in those businesses. And I think it is pretty remarkable that they’re putting up record quarterly margin performance given, frankly, not a lot of volume growth, not a lot of volume leverage. So you can imagine once we get the volume leverage going again, as Chris was talking about at incrementals kind of in that 35 to 40 range, there’s even more runway for margin improvement.

Andrew Obin: Thank you so much.

Michael Larsen: Sure.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Steven Fisher: Thanks. Good morning, and congratulations, Scott. Within the Welding segment, it seemed like the year-over-year was a little weaker on the industrial side relative to last quarter and maybe a little better on the commercial. Is that something that you’re projecting at least in the near term? And to what extent is there a margin mix difference between those two subsegments that you could be aware of?

Michael Larsen: So there’s not a lot of difference in terms of the margin performance. But I think this is — these are some great data points that illustrate kind of the dynamic nature of the environment that we’re operating in. And really, what I tried to lay out in the commentary was what’s driving this on a year-over-year basis are just a comparison. So it’s really hard to draw any conclusions from the year-over-year comparisons. What I think we can say broadly in Welding, as we said upfront, is that the overall demand for equipment appears to be slowing down a little bit in the near term, whether that will remain at those levels on a go-forward basis is difficult to say at this point. Backlogs have normalized. We’re not really a backlog-driven company.

We’re now back to two to three weeks of backlog at the enterprise level. And then the last point I’ll make is we’re still seeing meaningful impact from our customers and channel partners reducing their levels of inventory. So if you think about at the enterprise level, that was a point to 1.5 points of organic growth drag. So just to maybe normalize the Q3 results a little bit on the top line. So 2% on an equal days basis, and then you factor in the inventory adjustments, you’re back at 3, 3.5 just to kind of put things in context a little bit. But there’s no question that the activity slowed down a little bit on the welding side here in the third quarter.

Steven Fisher: Okay, that’s helpful. And then when would you get an idea of how your price versus cost is going to shape up for 2024? I’m getting the sense broadly in industrial it is going to be pretty tight. Would you agree with that? And is that something you can sort of 80/20 to kind of tilted in your favor?