ICL Group Ltd (NYSE:ICL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Raviv Zoller: Just to remind everybody that we have dividend policy that’s been working well for us, which is distribution of 50% of our adjusted earnings every quarter, and our investors are seeing nice dividend return. And that still gives us ample cash to go through a transaction that — for any transaction more or less that we need. We were actually close to an M&A pretty lately, that didn’t go through because of valuation. And once again, we showed discipline given at the end of the day we want to make sure that we do the right transaction. We don’t think that share buyback is the right use for cash in a company that’s targeting growth. We’ve also seen our competitors acquire shares at very, very high valuations. So we may be closer than we were in the past but we’re not close yet to actually approve in such a program unless we see that it takes us a lot more time to go through the M&A that we’ve planned.

M&A has first priority before other things. Also, I believe that Aviram did mention that in terms of CapEx, we expect CapEx to be more or less in line with 2023. There’ll be somewhat of an addition because of our LFP [ph] plant which is an important venture for the company’s future, for our growth; so that’s going to require another $100 million or so next year. So we expect the next year’s CapEx to be circle [ph] $100 million more than the CapEx this year. And again, it’s targeting LFP [ph].

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question today comes from the line of Joel Jackson of BMO. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst: Hey everyone, this is Joseph [ph] on for Joel. So first of all, we just wanted to say we are shocked by all the events over the last month and hope that everyone at ICL is doing okay. So with that said, for my first question, could you guys just please rank the outlook for the different major potash markets? And how are those views compared to your thoughts, maybe three years ago? And also what are your initial thoughts on global demand for 2024 relative to 2023?

Raviv Zoller: Okay. So first of all, thanks for your kind words, we appreciate it; your support means a lot. In terms of potash market, currently we’re expecting demand next year to be around 68 million to 69 million tons following about 60 million to 61 million tons last year, and about 64 million to 65 million tons this year. In general, inventories are low in most regions, and there is a need for replenishment of inventory. Chinese inventory is relatively — I wouldn’t say high, but it’s not low but at the same time, there’s a lot of demand coming out of China; so there’s a healthy environment for next year as well. As you know, prices have stabilized and demand is as strong, we’re sold out for the year, of course, like I think everybody else.

And we see strong demand in Brazil, strong demand and even rising prices in the U.S. India, very low inventory; we’re not currently selling to India in the past couple of months but I’m sure demand will be there. There is some subsidy issues, I guess, both in potash and in phosphate, and we’ll see how that turns out. In terms of global supply, we still see Belarusian product being 3 million or 4 million tons lower than capacity. And given the current demand, we think it’s a healthy environment for next year. Longer term, we don’t see any major disruption until potentially BHP comes to the market; they say 2026 [ph], it seems a little optimistic to us. But again, we don’t have detailed information to say anything intelligent about it at this point.