Here are Updates on Oracle (ORCL) OpenAI $300 Billion Contract

Headwaters Capital Management, an investment management company, released its third-quarter 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. The third quarter results were mainly focused on AI. The portfolio returned -2.7% (-2.9% net) in the quarter compared to a +5.3% gain for the Russell Mid Cap Index. In addition, you can check the fund’s top 5 holdings to determine its best picks for 2025.

In its third-quarter 2025 investor letter, Headwaters Capital Management highlighted stocks such as Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL). Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) offers products and services that address enterprise information technology environments. The one-month return of Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) was 0.44%, and its shares gained 76.93% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On October 13, 2025, Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) stock closed at $308.01 per share, with a market capitalization of $878.073 billion.

Headwaters Capital Management stated the following regarding Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) in its third quarter 2025 investor letter:

“The catalyst for the September AI trade was Oracle Corporation’s (NYSE:ORCL) announcement of a 5-year contract with OpenAI for $300B (implying annual contract value of $60B) to host the company’s LLMs at Oracle data centers beginning in 2027. While the market has grown desensitized to these large headline numbers, it’s useful to step back and put these figures into context from the perspective of both the magnitude of spending and return on investment. It’s easiest to start with the amount of investment that five companies are collectively spending on AI. The table below outlines CAPEX spending by the five hyperscalers and compares it with the other 495 companies in the S&P 500. In 2026, these five hyperscaler companies are expected to spend $405B of CAPEX, nearly all of this related to AI infrastructure build.

In terms of the economics around this investment, details have emerged from the Oracle-OpenAI announcement that can help investors begin to untangle the economics of these contracts. It’s easiest to unpack this from the perspective of each of the players involved.

Committed to spending $60B annually with Oracle to host the Company’s LLMs. This annual expense represents the Company’s cost of goods sold for running LLMs. OpenAI is on track to generate $13B of revenue in 2025 (Source: Reuters and the Information). So just to cover the cost of operating their LLMs on this single contract, OpenAI needs revenue to grow 4.6x in 2 years, or a +115% CAGR over the next 2 years. This is a single contract for hosting services. OpenAI has numerous other hosting contracts, implying that the company needs revenue to significantly exceed $60B just to cover the company’s total cost of goods sold…” (Click here to read the full text)

Oracle’s (ORCL) Strategic Innovation Boosts its Dividend Appeal

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. According to our database, 124 hedge fund portfolios held Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) at the end of the second quarter, up from 97 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

In another article, we covered Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) and shared the list of AI stocks every investor should watch. In addition, please check out our hedge fund investor letters Q3 2025 page for more investor letters from hedge funds and other leading investors.

READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.