Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) on Business Model Mastery’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on HOG. Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)’s share was trading at $24.71 as of 27^th May. HOG’s trailing and forward P/E were 8.71 and 8.80 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

This iconic motorcycle company is far more than a vehicle manufacturer—it is a vertically integrated lifestyle brand with a highly defensible and profitable ecosystem. While motorcycles comprise most of its sales volume, the real profits come from parts, accessories, apparel, and especially financing. Parts and accessories, which account for nearly 16% of product sales, carry margins above 50%, and in-house financing, used in over 70% of U.S. purchases, locks in customers through a lifetime value loop.

The brand’s cultural significance, anchored by a 37.3% market share in the U.S. heavyweight segment and a trademarked engine sound, creates emotional resonance that rivals can’t replicate. Its global dealer network of 1,224 locations enables end-to-end monetization—from sales and customization to financing and loyalty programs—under one roof. Despite holding only 5% market share in Europe, the region offers a major growth opportunity amid rising motorcycle registrations.

Meanwhile, the electric spin-off LiveWire, though small today, is developing a maxi-scooter with KYMCO to target Asia’s rapidly electrifying markets. The company’s multi-layered moat includes brand equity, dealer integration, regional manufacturing agility, and a captive financial arm that boosts both margin and retention. Every new customer initiates a cycle of aftermarket purchases and community involvement, turning each sale into a long-term funnel. Harley’s Riding Academy feeds this loop by converting trainees into buyers. Ultimately, this business is not about units sold but about lifetime engagement. Its real power lies in total control—from design to distribution—and in transforming a single sale into a durable relationship. In a commoditized world, this emotional connection is a financial fortress.

For a comprehensive analysis of another standout stock covered by the same author, we recommend reading our summary of their bullish thesis on Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE). Since our coverage, the stock is up 3.3% as of 28^th May.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 22 hedge fund portfolios held HOG at the end of the first quarter which was 23 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of HOG as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than HOG but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.