Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 5 of 5

Both pension and trust fees decreased over the quarter due to lower performance-based management fees driven by negative returns on financial markets. Banking fees increased 1.1% in line with loan growth. Income from the non-financial sector was stable relative to a quarter earlier. On the bottom of the page, quarter-on-quarter variation of other operating income is mainly explained by a higher income from derivatives and FX gains related to our financial operations, partially offsetting the negative impact of fair value investments in fixed income in our NIM on investments. In addition, our banks and subsidiaries carried out property, plant and equipment optimization plans that resulted in income recorded under other income. On Page 14, we present some efficiency ratios on comparable basis.

Cost to assets of 2.7% improved 11 basis points relative to a quarter earlier and remained flat year-on-year incorporating the results of our groupwide cost containment efforts. Cost to income increased to 54.8% over the quarter, driven by the sluggish performance of our investment portfolios at fair value. Quarterly expenses fell 4.1% quarter-on-quarter and grew 6.9% year-on-year. Administrative expenses decreased 7.2% quarter-on-quarter and increased 7.2% year-on-year. Administrative expenses have been pressed by a 44% year-on-year increase in operating taxes, particularly industry and commerce tax, that accounts for 31% of quarterly administrative expenses. In addition, deposit insurance cost increased 20%, now accounting for 13% of our quarterly administrative expenses.

This explains 10.2 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points of the administrative expenses year-on-year growth. The remaining administrative expenses categories contracted 8.3% year-on-year and 16.3% quarter-on-quarter on aggregate. Personal expenses fell 3.9% over the quarter and grew 3.4% year-on-year, well below the 16% increase in minimum wage in Colombia. Finally, on Page 15 we present our net income and profitability ratios. Attributable net income for the quarter was COP65 billion or COP2.7 per share, bringing year to date attributable net income to COP656 billion or COP27.6 per share. Our return on average assets and our return on average equity for the quarter were 0.4% and 1.6%, respectively, bringing year-to-date annualized return on average assets and return on average equity to 0.8% and 5.3%, respectively.

Before moving into questions and answers, I will now summarize our general guidance for 2023 and 2024. Our guidance for 2023 remains relatively the same as on our last call, except for an update on NIM due to this quarter’s poor performance on investments and a slight increase in cost of risk. We now expect 2023 consolidated NIM to be in the 3.3% area with consolidated NIM on loans in the 4% area. This builds on the NIM on our — of our banking operation in the 4.2% area with NIM on loans in the 5% area. We now expect our cost of risk net of recoveries to be in the 2.1% area. The rest of our previous guidance for 2023 remains the same. Loan growth in the 4.5% to 5% range with commercial loans growing in the 5.5% to 6% range and retail loans growing in the 3% to 4% range, cost to assets in the two and three quarters area.

Income from the nonfinancial sector of 60% of that for 2022 and fee income ratio in the 20% to 25% area. As a result, we now expect our 2023 return on average equity to be in the 5% area. Regarding 2024, we are expecting loan growth in the 10.5% area with commercial loans growing around 9.5% and retail loans growing around 12%. NIM in the 4.1% area with NIM on loans in the 5% area. NIM for banking segment in the 4.8% area with NIM on loans in the 5.5% area. Cost of risk net of recoveries in the 2% area. Cost to assets in the 2.7% area. Income from the non-financial sector of 60% of that for 2023. A fee income ratio in the 20% to 25% area with 19% for our banking segment. And finally, we expect our 2024 return on average equity to be in the 8.5% to 9% range.

We are now open for questions-and-answers.

Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And we have no questions at this time. Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez, I turn the call back over to you.

Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez: All right. Thank you, Krista. I think maybe this time around, as Diego said in his presentation, our guidance for good or bad, but our guidance was right on. And besides that, well, as we all know, the country has now entered into a path of shrinkage and hopefully we will be able to compensate that and write on the coattails of the economic recovery. Other than that, we’re working very, very hard in putting together a year of recovery, a transition year for 2024, as we also said. So hopefully, we’ll be delivering news in accordance with our strategy and we’ll be happy to share everything with you, as we always do. And we’ll be as timely with our presentations and accurate as we have always been. And therefore, we’ll meet everybody again. And when we come up with our results for the whole 2023 and hopefully we’ll have good news as 2024 begins. I thank you all for joining the call and we’ll see you next time.

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating and you may now disconnect.

End of Q&A:

Follow Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.a. (NYSE:AVAL)

Page 5 of 5