Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

On a positive note, our forecasts of a slowdown in past due loan formation materialized both in 30 and 90-day metrics. Consequently, cost of risk likely peaked during this quarter. Fourth, cost control initiatives deployed throughout the year enabled a 4.1% reduction in OpEx compared to a quarter earlier despite a 7.2% increase in operating taxes and deposit insurance. Operating taxes and deposit insurance account for 34% of administrative expenses. We remain focused on achieving further efficiencies. Fifth, the contribution of our infrastructure non-financial sector investments remained relatively flat compared to a quarter earlier and was lower than in the past, explained by projects moving from the construction to the operation phase. Finally, regarding our NIM on investments, this quarter marks the worst quarter since we adopted IFRS back in 2014 because of negative valuations of our portfolios carried at fair values resulting from a material deterioration in the fixed income and equity markets coupled with current high cost of funds.

Our subsidiaries investment portfolios reflected the downturn in peso and dollar denominated Colombian sovereign debt linked to external factors like the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish view and to local factors like the persistence of inflation. Going forward, these portfolios could benefit from a falling interest rate environment. Finally, we view 2024 as a year of transition and the path to return to our profitability targets sometime in 2025. We forecast our banking segment’s profitability will recover driven by higher NIM, lower cost of risk and the positive effects of cost control initiatives implemented in 2023. We expect that the lower risk profile of our loan portfolio will continue to be a competitive advantage relative to our peers throughout the remainder of this challenging cycle.

During 2024, we will continue to build our digital payments ecosystems as our bank’s digital clients surpass 5 million. Clients of our digital wallet dale! increase as much as they did during 2023 or approximately 2 million and our digital transactions as a percentage of total transactions continue to register numbers in excess of 65%. We expect Porvenir to have a similar performance in 2024 relative to 2023 and the recovery of returns on its tabulation reserves will offset a slowdown in fee income related to a weaker job market compared to 2023. We understand the importance of undertaking new nonfinancial investments through Corficolombiana and therefore we are in the process of building a pipeline of projects and possible investments, both in Colombia, where an infrastructure agenda is still to be well defined by the government and abroad.

We’re optimistic as we consider some of our options, but it’s still too early to tell whether any of these will materialize into actual opportunities. In the meantime, Corficolombiana will remain pressured by high financing costs and by lower income from its current toll roads. I thank you for your attention and now I’ll pass on the presentation to Diego, who will explain in detail our business results and provide guidance for this year and 2024.

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia: Thank you, Luis Carlos. Beginning on Page 6. Assets increased 0.2% during the quarter and 4.5% over the year. Year-on-year, net loans and fixed income investments gained weight while unconsolidated equity investments decreased their share. Our mix remained relatively stable over the quarter. Moving to Page 7, we present the evolution of our loans. Gross loans increased 1.1% during the quarter and 6.5% year-on-year. Peso denominated loans increased 1% during the quarter and 8.9% over the year. Despite tighter origination policies, quarterly and annual growth of our loan book was stronger than that of our peers linked to market share gains in all loan categories. Year-on-year increase in market shares were 50 basis points for total loans, 44 basis points for commercial loans, 112 basis points for consumer and 28 basis points for mortgages.

Commercial loans grew 1% over the quarter and 7.2% year-on-year. Growth came primarily from working capital loans while demand for CapEx loans continued to be soft. Consumer loans grew 1% over the quarter and 5.2% year-on-year. High interest rates, slow economic activity and softer macro outlook continue to underpin a sluggish performance of consumer loans. Payroll loans account for 55% of our consumer portfolio, followed by personal loans, credit cards and auto loans that account for 24%, 12% and 9%, respectively. Payroll loans grew 1.5% over the quarter, adding 0.2% year-on-year. Credit cards grew 1% quarter-on-quarter and 12.6% year-on-year, while automobile loans grew 0.5% and 3.8% during the same periods. Personal loans growth decelerated to 0.1% during the quarter, accumulating a still strong 15.3% 12-month growth.

Finally, mortgages grew 2% of the quarter and 6.8% year-on-year, recovering from a slow first half due to changes introduced by the government to its Social Housing program. We expect loan growth to remain soft across products and segments in line with the central bank policies and a softer local and global economic outlook. On pages 8 and 9 represent several loan portfolio quality ratios. The quality of our loan portfolios measured by stages remained relatively stable over the quarter. 30-day PDLs increased to 5.3% and 18 basis points deterioration over three months and 94 basis points over 12 months. While 90-day PDLs were 3.8%, a 23 basis points deterioration over three months and 56 basis points deterioration over 12 months. Although still high, PDL formation on a 30-day basis improved for a second quarter in a row.