Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S.A.B. de C.V. (NASDAQ:OMAB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ricardo Duenas: I think the new basis what they are trying to establish is to have a more precise traffic vector when we negotiate tariffs with them. So starting in the negotiation of 2031, what will happen is there will be a look back for the previous five-year period. So in our case, it would be the ’26 to 2030 period. And according to that to the traffic — actually to the revenues from that five-year plan, everything that was collected in excess of 3% will be recognized will be carried forward for the reference value for the next negotiation. In the past just to give you some, in the past, four MDP negotiations, two of them, we have been above the negotiated traffic. Two times we have been below the negotiated traffic. So there’s not necessarily certainty, we will always be above the negotiated traffic. And I think that this annex tries to keep more clarity and more transparency as to the traffic vector that we will negotiate on our tariff revisions.

Rodolfo Ramos: Perfect. Very clear. And just more on the business and just here second question. I don’t know if you can share your traffic growth expectation for next year. I mean how — and how much are you factoring in for an impact from the patent with the engine recall, Acapulco, of course, is still early, but just wanted to get a sense of how you’re seeing things going into 2024?

Ricardo Duenas: I think for the rest of the year, Pablo, I think it’s already incorporated the patent with the issue. We’ve been working closely with airlines also with the manufacturers. There’s still not much clarity as to what will be the impact on the maintenance schedule of next year. So we’re waiting to hear and what will be the impact there.

Rodolfo Ramos: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Alberto Valerio: Hi, Ricardo, Ruffo and Emmanuel. Hope everybody who works at OMA and Acapulco airport is fine. My question is related to the regulatory framework. It’s hard for us to understand that we have a very few changes on the regulatory framework and put this together as the government’s pitch of decreasing tariffs by 10% to 15%. If you have a similar CapEx similar discount rates and tariffs decreasing by 10% to 15%, can we assume that will be harder from now on to get maximum tariffs. It will be running close to 90% or is it something else? Thank you.

Ruffo Perez Pliego: So, yes, as you mentioned, there are little modifications to the tariffs. I think the main change is that clarity and takes away subjectivity before relative to the previous basis. And with respect to reaching maximum tariffs, I mean, I think it’s going to be — in the case of our existing MDP cycle, which, as you know, ends in 2025, we probably are going to be around 97% for this year and perhaps a similar percentage the following years. And for the next tariff review, I mean, based on the traffic vector, I mean, obviously, our goal would be to reach the 100% level in the following ordinary tariff review.

Alberto Valerio: I see. Thank you very much.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Bruno Amorim with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Bruno Amorim: Thank you for taking my question. Actually, I have two. The first one is a clarification on the reduction of TUA. I understood that you mentioned that you’re going to lower TUA in 10 airports. And that would be offset by CapEx postponement. Is it fair to say that from an NPV perspective, you’re looking to recover 100% of the reduction in TUA through this postponement in CapEx so that the value of the company will not be impaired and also in that same topic, if you lower the TUA, which, I guess, accounts for the majority of your revenue, and if you expect no changes to your tariffs in the MDP as a result of the ongoing discussions. This means that you are going to going forward run below the maximum tariff. So that’s the first question.

And the second question is actually I’d like to have your help to better understand the big picture around the new set of rules for the MDP. We are talking about higher concession fee, which, as you have argued, argues for higher tariffs, all else equal. But at the same time, it seems that the agenda of the government is to lower tariffs, not to increase tariffs. So we are talking about higher concession fee, lower tariffs the expiry date of the contracts have not changed and it will be good. You have some confirmation from your side, if you are not discussing to extend the concession. On the CapEx as well, the feedback from your peers is that the CapEx plan for the MDP will likely not change as a result of the new regulation. So if you have the same expiry date, same CapEx, more concession fee and you have lower tariffs in the next MDP.

How come the returns on the regulated part of the business will not be lower? What are we missing here? Thank you very much.

Ricardo Duenas: Just to clarify, there’s no extension of the concession has been discussed during this conversation. It’s too early to say what will happen on the next negotiation. We’re still two years away. Obviously, the concession tax will get factored into the reference value. There will be many variables that will be moving from now to the ’26 negotiation and this concession tax will be just one of them as many variables are moving. For the next year, maximum tariff compliance, we’re looking to — it’s still difficult to assess what will be the percentage compliance given that these TUA discounts could have some impact on traffic as well. Ruffo, do you want to add something?

Ruffo Perez Pliego: Well, in preparation for the next MDP cycle, obviously, we’ll have to look into how to be more efficient and how to make our investments and to extract the most value out of the infrastructure that currently is in place to maximize its utilization before increasing the size of the terminals for investing in additional infrastructure. So that’s something that we’ll be working closely in the next couple of years as well.

Bruno Amorim: And if I may, just one follow-up question on the potential impact from the grounding of aircraft as a result of the issue with the engines from Pratt and Whitney even though you mentioned you are not ready to provide a forecast for traffic next year. Are we talking about negative traffic variation or can traffic still grow next year or directionally, what do you think can happen given the extent of the exposure of the two main low-cost carriers in the country? Any guidelines you could provide at this point in time?

Ricardo Duenas: It’s — as you said, it’s difficult to assess right now what will be the impact with the Pratt and Whitney engine issue. But what I can tell you is we are expecting some small growth in the aero side of the business for next year.

Bruno Amorim: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Juan Macedo with GBM. Please proceed with your question.