Great Ajax Corp. (NYSE:AJX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

This decreased from 82.3% at June 30. Re-preformance increases life of loan cash flows, but the duration extension reduces yield and interest income in the current quarter. As more purchase delinquent loans re-perform rather than prepay or default, this lowers current taxable income as well. On page five, purchase RPLs represent approximately 89% of our loan portfolio at September 30. Purchased RPLs represented approximately 96% 18 months ago. We primarily purchased RPLs that have made less than seven consecutive payments and NPLs that have certain loan level and underlying property specifications. We typically buy well-seasoned lower LTV loans with a targeted amount of absolute dollars of equity. For residential loans, we continue to see stronger performance than expected in our portfolio.

However, given the increase in interest rates, credit tightening, and the potential for material economics slowing, we would expect an increase in delinquency and default at some point. We have seen a small increase in delinquency in our portfolio in Q3. As a result, we have been hesitant to be aggressive in residential loan acquisitions as we expect a better opportunity set will develop. One thing we have seen is that significant HPA and the resulting material increase in absolute dollars of equity coupled with rapidly rising mortgage rates made borrowers more engaged and financially attached to their properties and therefore more determined to maintain regular payments. Historically, we have typically seen mortgage borrowers pay credit cards and auto loans and HELOCs before paying first mortgages in times of financial stress.

However, as a result of significant increases in absolute dollars of equity for seasoned loans, we’re now seeing increased delinquency for their credit cards and auto loans and less so for their first mortgages. Commercial real estate loans have not fared as well, and we are beginning to see opportunities. We believe there will be significant opportunities in sub-performing and non-performing commercial real estate loans and bridge loans in many markets as we get into 2024. We’ve seen a preview of this in the last few months and is having a less talked about effect on midsized and subsidized bank liquidity and loan portfolio performance. They frequently have higher percentages of their loan portfolios with CRE exposure. We’re beginning to see commercial real estate loans for sale from these institutions and expect that opportunity set will grow.

We have joint venture partners that would like us to find significant dollars of commercial opportunities. On Page six, we own lower LTV loans. Our overall RPL purchase price is approximately 41% of current property value and 91% of GPV. We’ve always been focused on loans with lower LTVs with certain threshold levels of absolute dollars of equity in targeted geographic locations. On Page seven, since Q3 and Q4 of 2021, we significantly increased our NPL purchases versus RPLs. NPLs on average can have shorter duration than RPLs. For NPLs on our balance sheet, our overall purchase price is 90% of GPV, 85% of total owing balance, including arrears, and 45% of property value. As a result of the low loan-to-value and higher absolute dollar of equity on average to our NPL portfolio as well as rapidly rising mortgage rates, we have seen significant reinstatement and re-performance on NPLs. As I mentioned earlier, for both RPLs and NPLs, purchasing seasoned loan LTV loans at 50% plus discount to property values, the significant absolute dollars of equity provides a natural credit hedge to housing price declines in recession as resulting increases in delinquencies shortens duration and increases our corresponding yields materially.

On Page eight, at September 30, approximately 78% of our loans were in our target markets. California continues to represent the largest segment of our loan portfolio at approximately 22%. However, California has been nearly 40% of all prepayments in 2021, 2022 and so far in 2023. Our California mortgage loans are primarily in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties. Florida represents approximately 17% of our portfolio and Miami-Dade Broward and Palm Beach counties are approximately 75% of that. We continue to see demand for homes in our price ranges in our target markets, both from potential homeowners and single-family rental buyers. On Page nine, portfolio migration. At September 30, approximately 81.2% of our loan portfolio made at least 12 of the last 12 payments as compared to 82.3% at June 30 and 74% 15 months ago.

Approximately 77% of our loan portfolio made at least 24 of the last 24 compared to approximately 69% at December 31 and 72% 6 months ago. Approximately 83% have made at least seven consecutive payments. This significant increase in monthly performance is more notable, given that since Q3 of 2021 to be primarily purchased NPLs. Historically, we have seen that when our purchase loans reached seven consecutive payments, they typically get to 12 consecutive payments more than 92% of the time. Seven consecutive payments has been a statistical turning point. On Page 10, average loan yields declined marginally and average yields on beneficial equity interest in our joint ventures increased a little, primarily due to less prepayment in loans and slightly more delinquency in joint venture loans.

For debt securities and beneficial interests, remember that yield is net of servicing fees and yield on loans is gross of servicing fees. Debt securities and beneficial interest is how our interest in our JVs are presented under GAAP, and an increase on balance sheet relative to loans since 2020. Since we purchased loans through the discount, the increased monthly pre-performance of delinquent loans in excess of expectations can extend duration and reduce yield. The significant absolute dollars of equity for our loans, both from the types of loans we buy, home price appreciation in our target markets that magnifies this absolute dollars of equity, and rising mortgage rates led to material re-performance in excess of expectations. Our leverage continues to be low, especially for companies in our sector.