Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE:GTN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Kevin Latek: Steven on the first point, yes, we would anticipate retrans would be higher next year, just simply the volume of contracts that are being renegotiated. We expect those will go forward as all of our retrans agreements, really almost without exception for 20-some years have gone, meaning they won’t be fun, they won’t be easy, but they’ll get done quietly in the background with no noise or disruption and continue to move the needle closer towards full value of our stations. So yes, we do expect retrans to be higher next year. And with that, I’ll let Pat address core.

Pat LaPlatney: Yes, I think the simplest way to answer is there was some crowd out last year. It wasn’t a ton of crowd out. And could there be a little bit of upside in Q4? Potentially. So historically, we’ve been conservative, and I’m not telegraphing anything. I just think that the market is pretty strong, and I think you’ll see that reflected in our results.

Steven Cahall: And maybe if I could ask a quick follow-up. I know that for competitive reasons, giving revenue or EBITDA related to your new anchor tenant in assembly is not possible. But as we think about the contribution in 2024, could it be a material contributor to either EBITDA or free cash flow next year? Thanks.

James Ryan: Steven, as Hilton commented, the assembly studios obviously is primarily a long-term lease annuity to the company. Obviously, with the five sound stages we’re keeping, there’s some shorter term leases as well. Hilton commented that because there’s minimal operating expense for the facility, and actually, we only have less than 10 people of our own employee at assembly. Everybody else is either NBCU or a contractor for NBCU. It will be an extremely high margin business for us, and as Hilton said, it would be akin to a nice performing television station. But in the context of a company that’s doing 3.3-ish billion dollars of revenue, material becomes a fairly large number in my mind. So is it nicely additive at a high margin? Yes. And is it a long-term annuity? Yes. Again, materiality at a 3.3-billion-dollar revenue company is a little bit different.

Steven Cahall: Thank you.

James Ryan: Thank you, Steven.

Operator: Our next question is going to come from Paul O’Farrell [Ph] with Mayburn Partners. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst: Thank you. Thank you for taking my question. I was looking through the disclosures in the press release, and I couldn’t tell if the CapEx on assembly was cumulative or additive, but it looks like the total gross investment there is something close to 500 million. Is that correct? And if so, doesn’t that imply that any kind of reasonable return on that actually generates something that is meaningful to the company’s net income or free cash flow?

James Ryan: So the cumulative amount through the end of this year, netting the repayment of public infrastructure from the governmental entity and also assuming a very small few acres being sold to a residential developer in order to be able to check the box for residential development on the overall acreage probably will have a net investment of probably in the $450 million to $475 million range…

Unidentified Analyst: So I guess I’m just curious what you would consider a reasonable return on that investment?

Hilton Howell: Well, we think it’s going to be a very solid return, and we can’t speak to you, Paul, on percentages at this time because we have NDAs on that. And assuming the strike and sometime soon, we think it’s going to be a very solid and very profitable investment, and you guys will get to see it as each quarter comes out through the course of 2024 and thereafter.

Unidentified Analyst: But would you agree that as we sit here today, there’s a net investment of — on your numbers, $450 million to $475 million, which essentially you’re getting 0 credit for given that everyone values your company on free cash flow or average year EBITDA.

Hilton Howell: Paul, the value of Assembly Atlanta is worth more than the entire market cap to Gray Television. So I’ve made it very, very clear that we are grossly undervalued. And yes, you’re accurate. We get no credit for what we have been able to create at Assembly Studios, but I think that will all matriculate out as our quarters go forward.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question is going to come from Dan Kurnos from Benchmark. Your line is open.

Daniel Kurnos: Great, thanks good morning. Maybe just to follow up on Steve’s question, Pat, on core. You’ve got Phoenix coming on board. I know Scripps gave some numbers around the impact of local sports deals. You obviously message, there could be something else to come that I assume is not in your numbers if you land another one of those deals. And it sounds like National getting better with local stable to kind of up. So I’m just sort of trying to triangulate the impact of some of the stuff that you’ve signed plus kind of what you’re seeing in underlying. And I know you guys have outperformed the industry and gotten no credit for it for the last, I don’t know, 3, 4 quarters now. So it’s probably more difficult to come.

Hilton Howell: Probably a year.

Daniel Kurnos: All right, Hilton. Well, I am trying to keep it maybe a little more focused. But yes, I know what you’re saying. So at an incremental. Is there anything else that you can kind of provide around that? Or I don’t want to kind of ask this question again, but I guess you, hopefully, see where I’m coming from.

Patrick LaPlatney: Sure. So look, I think as it relates to sports deals, we have one basically started in October. I think one thing to consider when you talk about the sports deals that they will all likely be different. So the types of deals you do may include a lot of advertising inventory for a station or stations other deals may have very limited advertising inventory for a station or stations. So that’s sort of a big variable there. But the reality is we are — in terms of core revenue, I think Scripps is somewhere between 40% and 50% of our core revenue. So moving the meter for us is a different thing to moving the meter for scripts on core. And look, at the end of the day, I think there’s great opportunities in the sports. We’re going to be aggressive in pursuing those opportunities. And we think it’s — at some point, when we acquire a number of franchises, hopefully, there will be some significant impact to us. But right now, there isn’t.