Global Payments Inc. (NYSE:GPN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Cameron Bready: Yes. Good question, Dan. I’ll start and ask Josh to chime in as well. So I think those comments were really with respect to, obviously, our guide being able to accommodate a macro environment, excuse me, that is probably less constructive than what we’ve seen over the course of Q3 and what we’ve seen in October. I called out in my prepared remarks the things that we’re obviously focused on globally as it relates to the macroeconomic environment. Clearly, the impact on a monetary policy decision increases in rates and how that manifests itself through the various economies we operate in around the globe. It’s something that we continue to monitor very closely. Inflation remains stubborn, although we had a pretty decent print in Europe this morning.

Overall, inflation still is trending kind of above expectations for most federal banks around the globe. And obviously, that’s something that we continue to monitor, obviously, closely tied to monetary policy and what decisions may be made over the coming months. And then certainly, on the geopolitical front, we continue to monitor and watch the situation in Europe that has extended now well over a year. And obviously, the recent events in the Middle East, which are horrific as it relates to the terrorist attacks. Israel and then the resulting obviously war that is now developing in that region. Those are things that we’re monitoring very, very closely. Obviously, as Josh said in his comments, October trends looked just like Q3, which is a positive, I think, from our perspective.

But there is uncertainty out there and part of our job is to monitor that uncertainty and make sure we’re positioning the business appropriately in light of what we see from a macroeconomic perspective. Josh, I don’t know if you’d add anything to that?

Josh Whipple: No, I would just reiterate that what we’re seeing in October is very similar to what we saw in Q3 and Q2. So we feel pretty good about what we’re seeing currently. But as Cameron highlighted, there are risks out there, the geopolitical stress. The consumer repayment, that’s obviously impacting things. And then there’s inflation and tighter credit policy as well. So again, it’s our tempered outlook, I think, is appropriate just given some of the macro backdrop that we’re currently faced with.

Daniel Perlin: That’s helpful. Just a quick follow-up, I don’t know maybe it’s kind of a bigger picture question, but when you think about your ability to drive noncyclical growth, so to speak, in an environment where the consumer may weaken. Like how do you think about your ability to be able to manage that and balance it, noncyclical in this case could also be just like share gain or the new rollout of POS or things of that nature, I’m just trying to kind of gauge the ability for you to manage that? Thank you.

Cameron Bready: Yes. Look, I think as we talked about for a long period of time, I think we built a model that is fairly durable and resilient and able to grow throughout different macroeconomic environments. So obviously, I think as we think about the future and what the macro may hold, I think we have a lot of confidence that there are growth drivers in this business that can sustain attractive levels of growth even if the underlying GDP growth and consumer spending levels are lower than kind of what we’ve seen over the course of 2023. Unless we find ourselves in a pandemic like situation we saw in 2020 or a severe recession/depression, I think through most normal macroeconomic environment, this model is built to grow, the rates of growth may evolve over those different cycles.

But by and large, between share gains, software, new product capability that we’re able to bring to market, secular growth trends we see in markets not tied to GDP growth, but tied to digital payment adoptions, continue to be tailwinds for the business overall. So I think with that backdrop, we’re pretty confident that, obviously, we’ve got a model that will grow at attractive rates, notwithstanding what the macro may be. But that’s obviously something we work very hard to make sure we’ve got a resilient business model that can ride through different cycles over a longer period of time.

Josh Whipple: And the only other thing I would add is that from a macro perspective, if you think about our business, it’s incredibly versatile. As Cameron mentioned earlier, we do business across 70 different verticals. We have a physical presence in 41 countries around the globe and do business in 170 different markets. So I think the diversification of our business really creates that durability and stability that we’re seeing currently.

Daniel Perlin: That’s great. Thank you both.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Trevor Williams with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.

Trevor Williams: Thanks a lot. Good morning. Yes, I want to follow up on issuer. It’s good to see the core growth acceleration there. Cameron, with the on-boardings you called out, some of the visibility into the conversion pipeline, just how durable are you expecting the growth in that segment to be if there does end up being some softening in more of the volume-based revenue at some point, just a refresh on how you view the macro sensitivity of that segment would be helpful? Thanks.

Cameron Bready: Yes, it’s a good question, Trevor. I think, obviously, as a sensitivity matter, the issuer business is less macro sensitive than the merchant business kind of by definition given the revenue construct of that business and how we go to market from a commercial standpoint. So I do think there’s arguably greater durability. Obviously, less upside, of course, as we’ve seen through different cycles with the issuer business but more downside protection, more durability through softer macro environments in the issuer business. I would say, look, we target that mid-single-digit growth level in that business given where we are currently. I think we feel good about the prospects of continuing to deliver on that level of growth in the business over the short to medium term.

Naturally, the investments we’re making in that business are designed to drive higher levels of growth in the business over a longer period of time. So as we continue to execute on our modernization program, we continue to nativize existing core feature functionality and capability in the AWS cloud environment, and we continue to obviously sell that and bring more customers into our issuer environment. Our hope is that we can obviously improve the outlook from a growth perspective in that business over a long period of time. But sitting here today, I think the execution that we’ve seen, the pipeline that we have, the underlying trends we’re seeing in the business gives us confidence around the ability to kind of sustain that mid-single-digit growth level heading into the next couple of years.