Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Lars Barstad: Of course, Greg. Basically what we witnessed during 2022 was obviously it was a smaller segment that started to perform in the MR Segment first, then LR1s, then LR2s, LR2s that were trading there typically end up to trade products that first Aframax demand up. And then Suezmax has started to have a field day on Aframax stem and the VLCC started trading Suezmax stems. You are right in the way that a lot of the demand for VLCCs currently is actually what you typically would call a Suezmax trade US Gulf to UK conference. We’ve seen large activity and high amount of fixtures where VLCCs are actually stepping in. We also saw at the briefly in Q1 as soon as the West African market for VLCCs started to become a bit shaky the VLCCs were quickly to cap the Suezmax earnings.

So to try and make sense of it, I think the situation around boiler being redirected from Russia to — from going into Europe being redirected to Middle East and Asia, you’re basically seeing both Aframaxes and Suezmaxes getting drawn into that trade, limiting the amount of macro ships in those markets in a compliant markets that has given the VLCCs opportunities to enter that market and basically have good returns in that market, too. So it is a bit of the various asset classes eating into each other’s business segments. And you’re right in saying that for pure kind of traditional VLCC trade that probably isn’t enough oil to engage the fleet fully at this point. But it’s — this is going to move back and forth in cycles I believe as we proceed.

And I think it was quite encouraging to see where everything bottomed out in the first quarter where we’re still very solidly in North of at least our cash breakevens when the market turned.

Greg Lewis: Okay, great. That’s super helpful. And then another question that I think people are wondering around, and I know there’s not an easy answer here is around the dark fleet. I mean, clearly, everywhere you read, I guess sanction cargoes are still moving. I guess I’ll ask it this way, do we have any sense for how many vessels obviously excluding the Russian flag fleet or the Russian-owned fleet could be — could potentially be in that market. And really as vessels are in that market, is there any way to kind of gauge what the utilization of those vessels would be in say if I’m trading and I guess dark type fleet, I’m assuming that’s less efficient, but kind of any color you have around there. I think would be helpful.

Lars Barstad: Yes, regretfully, it’s going to be a bit of guesswork.

Greg Lewis: Your guesses are better than mine.

Lars Barstad: But first I’d like to say that, just with the gray fleet and the fleet trading on Russia, that is still a good quality fleet trading in accordance with IMO rules well-maintained ships and so forth although there may be a bit challenged by age. So I’ll kind of leave that aside. On the dark fleet, I’ve seen estimations of 5% to 6% of the VLCC and Suezmax fleet being engaged in that trade. If you look at efficiency, if you call a compliant modern VLCC 100% I would say these ships are probably a 30%. We’ve previously modeled the overall VLCC fleet in that manner. Where we would say that over 20-year vessel that as an owner you’ve never heard off, you would attach to the 30% efficiency to that ship compared to say a dark — gray fleet Russian trader, who’ll probably only get 50%, 60% efficiency out of the ship basically due to the limitations in the compliant market a ship with Russian history have.