Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

I — in the future, where hopefully there’s peace in Ukraine and the trading patterns normalize, I would envision some of these owners just exiting the market altogether and probably not doing much of replacements. So I think kind of where you’re going to see the replacement activity is with normal comply and shipowners as ourselves as assets come to age and we are in the industry for the long run meaning that we’re actually going to be here for the next 20 years as well. And so it’s going to be active like ourselves that are probably going to make us the order book at some point. But again back to Omar’s question in the beginning here, we need the economics to work to make that financial decision and you could say that we’ve had inflation on asset prices where the inflation on wages actually certain countries struggle to even get workers into the yards.

So — but what we really need now is inflation on rates because the rates are simply not high enough to defend that investment at this point.

Jon Chappell: Okay. That leads them to have an important follow-up question I think. You mentioned the yards here and the labor shortages. So my understanding and correct me if I’m wrong, is that the limitations on shipbuilding capacity at the moment is more to do with the lack of specialized labor then it has to do with a lack of infrastructure. So, in your mind, what is the likelihood that certain governments either engage in stimulus or try to revitalize their shipbuilding industries or try to incentivize training of labor as that could help kind of offset that in the future?

Lars Barstad: I think that’s very likely. And particularly in China, it’s net short hydrocarbons. In general, they have a huge incentive kind of from a government side to try and revitalize the shipbuilding industry. And actually we’re already seeing that a couple of yards in China that are kind of getting back online again to obviously to a modest degree at this stage. But if you look at orders that can be placed in 2025, these are predominantly Chinese yards. For Japan, it’s a structural issue, I just learned that the average age of Japanese shipyard worker is 67 years. I’m only 62 myself, but I want to know how much steel you want to cut when you reached 60. So on Korea, extremely efficient high technology, they actually have a higher margin building LNG carriers for VLCCs or even container ships,so it’s a difficult — I can’t really give you a straight answer, just the color I just gave.

Jon Chappell: That’s a really interesting color. Thanks for that. Lars. I’ll turn it over.

Operator: Thank you. Now I’m going to take our next question. And the next question comes the line of Greg Lewis from BTIG. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Greg Lewis: Hi, thank you. And good afternoon and good morning, everybody. Lars, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the market. And really, I guess some of the questions that we’ve been having and we’ve been hearing from investors is — the market is — the VLCC market is strong and really some of that strength in the market more recently has come in the face of really lower crude exports out of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and we can appreciate that China is absolutely importing more crude oil. But I guess we’re kind of wondering. Is there a little bit of a zero-sum game in there where if China is importing more just means another Asian producer or Asian consumer is consuming less and really just kind of any color you have around the strength in the market despite OPEC slowly ratcheting down production?