Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Is it €“ again, this is more broad-based? Is it more like, yes, we need to really €“ we’re spending more, right, in €˜23, and then we will still be spending in ’24? But as we get through these benefits, and we would expect to see, right, that margin expansion maybe playout in year 3 or 4 or what have you? So that’s all. Thanks.

Ryals McMullian: Well, first of all, I would certainly hope that this is not the new normal as far as commodities go. So hopefully, there is some, yes, with this coming as we get through this year and into next year. But no, good question, Rob. And I think you’ve largely got it. Obviously, investment has to come before benefit, right? And I think we’ve laid out that due to inflation and the consumer and other things, it’s going to be a pretty challenging year for us and others in the food space. But we remain steadfast about continuing to invest in this business for the future. And so we’re not slowing down. We see no reason to slow down. So we will continue to roll out the bars. We will put marketing support behind that. We’re investing in supply chain this year.

We’ve talked a lot about the efficiency improvements that we need in the bakeries. We think that these investments are going to unlock that as well. And then, obviously, you have the digital ERP spending. And I think that’s where you’ll see kind of a peak spending this year, with that beginning to moderate in the years to come. And then, of course, you have the expected benefits that we will be rolling in as well. So investments going down and benefits coming up, all of which we think will contribute to substantial margin improvement.

Robert Dickerson: Got it. Alright. Thanks, guys.

Operator: And our next question will come from Ben Bienvenu of Stephens. Your line is open.

Jim Salera: Hey, good morning, guys. It’s Jim Salera on for Ben.

Ryals McMullian: Hi, Ben.

Jim Salera: I wanted to ask some questions around demand elasticity. I know in the prepared remarks, you guys called out a significant portion of the volume decline was due to SKU rat. Can you just give us an idea for maybe what the branded volumes would have looked like ex the cake SKU rat? I assume in the other €“ the whole volume decline is probably all eliminated SKUs, but on the branded side about like half SKU rat, half demand elasticity?

Ryals McMullian: I don’t €“ we don’t have that to disclose for you today, that breakout. I mean, what I can tell you is you’re right that the lion’s share of the volume declines are in cake and foodservice, and a lot of that is strategic and intentional. So we pulled back on a lot of underperforming SKUs. In cake, we pulled back on a lot of underperforming business in foodservice. And we will continue to attempt to optimize that business, if you will. So when you think about volume declines €“ and certainly, yes, there has been some softness on the branded side. As we’ve seen this mix shift to private label, I don’t think that’s a surprise to anybody. But as you think about the overall business, it’s most €“ it’s heavily weighted towards cake and foodservice.

Jim Salera: Okay. And then on the pricing for 2023, is that kind of evenly spread across the portfolio? Or is that more targeted on foodservice and private label? Because my thought is as the value gap at mass is narrowing, if you guys put pricing, does that kind of reopen that gap back up? Or is it still going to kind of trend to a narrower gap?