Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

The divergence between mass and grocery does continue though. In the first period, private label was up pretty significantly in line with what it had been the last couple of periods of last year, but it was actually down from a unit share standpoint in the grocery segment. So that’s €“ if that continues, that’s obviously an encouraging trend in and of itself.

Bill Chappell: Got it. Thanks. I will turn it over.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Dickerson of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Robert Dickerson: Great. Thanks so much. I have a bunch of questions, but kind of €“ I’ll try to keep it short. Ryals, maybe also Steve, just I am curious in terms of the top line guidance, the essentially 8% to 9% year-over-year is a lot of that coming from €“ it sounds like some incremental pricing in foodservice and private label? And I am kind of just asking because obviously, there has already been some pricing taken right on the branded side, which I would think would decelerate through the year and volumes overall for the business were still down a little bit. So just seems a little high to me, but maybe there is also some tailwind coming from the bar rollout. So, just any additional color on that would be awesome?

Ryals McMullian: Yes. So yes, definitely a little bit of tailwind expected from the bar launch, but more impactful. Remember, Rob, we have got roughly 5 months of wraparound pricing from last year. So that maybe something you are missing there. Plus we have gone back with additional pricing on top of that this year. So a lot of the top line guidance range is additional price as we continue to experience higher costs.

Robert Dickerson: Okay, got it. And then in terms of the gross margin, it sounds like Q1 is a tough comp. You do have some pricing. It sounds like maybe there could be some easing costs as you get through the year just in terms of the hedging strategy kind of how would you paraphrase the year in terms of the gross margin side? Is it like probably flattish? Maybe it’s down a little bit? Maybe it’s a little second half better than first half? Again, any other color would be great?

Steve Kinsey: I mean, when you look at the full year, Rob, I think you’re going to look €“ you’re going to see probably pretty much flattish. As we said, we’re expecting some significant inflation to continue through 2023. And even with the additional pricing that Ryals just discussed, from an overall margin perspective, I would say, pretty flattish and pretty even throughout the year, with some pressure coming in Q1, obviously, because if you go back and look, Q1 was a very strong start in the last year.

Robert Dickerson: Okay. Perfect. That’s good enough. And then lastly for me is just, Ryals, in the prepared remarks, there are a lot of discussion commentary on the spending side kind of for future benefits and then also some commentary around kind of what those benefits could mean longer term. I think the line was meaningful margin expansion potential. Obviously, you’re spending to make the business stronger. And hopefully, with that strength and some mix benefits, longer term, there would be margin expansion potential. So I’m €“ I just think €“ I’m just curious like if we’re thinking about timing that some of that spending will continue through €˜23 and then assuming €˜24 and then maybe start to decelerate €˜25, €˜26 but still some there, if we just kind of hold, let’s say, commodities cost center, everything else being equal, right, which is tough to do, but just conceptually, how do you think of kind of that flow through on the benefit?