First Hawaiian, Inc. (NASDAQ:FHB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Robert Harrison: And then adding to that, in the securities portfolio, that’s another $700 million really on a 12-month look forward. So $2.2 billion of assets over the next 12 months repricing, Kelly. Repricing and turning into cash.

Kelly Motta: Got it. And then on the deposit front, I was just wondering maybe a two-quarter one, with your margin guidance expecting you to trough now in the fourth quarter, as we look ahead to 2024, assuming the fourth quarter is at trough. What are you assuming for deposit stability thereafter? Do you think fourth quarter is they level off from here, the noninterest-bearing? Or does that outlook still assume some headwinds out there, but maybe a little less than what we’ve been seeing in the last two quarters?

James Moses: Yes. No, I think there’s a lot less headwinds than we’ve seen. We’re seeing the pace of change slow down dramatically. We would expect that first quarter again, right, in flat rates, we’re expecting a trough here in Q4. And then we would actually expect to start to see the NIM grind two, three basis points higher, again, right, given flat interest rates at this point in time. So we’re encouraged by the stability of the deposit base, and we’re encouraged with the dynamics that we see, but more recently relative to earlier in the year. So I think it’s a generally pretty stable and good story for us heading into the end of this year and into next year.

Kelly Motta: Got it. I guess just asking a little bit in a little different way. Does that assume, I guess, do you need the noninterest-bearing stability in order to get that margin improvement ahead? Or does that guidance of inflection of Q4 still assume a modest downtick in noninterest-bearing deposits?

James Moses: Yes. No, good question, Kelly. I mean I think we would still have an ability to have the margin go higher even with slight downticks in the noninterest-bearing deposits. Again, we’re right at the level where we were pre-COVID. I don’t want to declare victory on that yet, but I don’t think we’re thinking too much lower from this point. But we also have the phenomenon of all those cash flows repricing over time as well, right? Those fixed rate loans that are coming off, but then repricing to higher levels as we go forward. So it’s not entirely dependent on the deposit forecast, I would say.

Kelly Motta: Got it. Thanks so much for that color Jamie. Last kind of question for me and then I’ll step back. Again, I’m so sorry about the Maui wildfires. My heart goes out to all those people and your employees and customers there. I’m wondering, have you seen cash flows related to insurance payments and relief funds impact your deposit flows at all? And how should we be thinking about that, if at all, at this point?

Robert Harrison: Kelly, this is Bob. That’s a great question. And we have started to see the insurance payouts happen, which is great. I mean the insurers have been very proactive being out in the field and trying to help their customers, both individuals and businesses. We haven’t seen a significant amount on our balance sheet as yet, but that could happen over time. Okay. Thanks so much for the color. I’ll step back.

Operator: Our next question comes from David Feaster with Raymond James. Your line is open.

David Feaster: Hey, good morning, everybody.

Robert Harrison: Good morning.

David Feaster: Maybe just kind of following up on that. At the outset, you talked a bit about the — maybe tourism doesn’t come back as quickly as end of November, like we were talking about or early November. And ultimately, kind of a stimulating impact from an economic perspective over time. I’m just kind of curious how — like how do you think this plays out? And maybe the time line into some of the broader economic backdrop from your perspective, given all that’s going on?