Essex Property Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ESS) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jessica Anderson: All right. Let me tackle that. I’ll tackle new leases then renewals. So as far as what we can expect for new lease rates through the quarter. I expect those to remain muted. We have come into a period of easier comps, but since we’ve increased incentives to backfill these units, that’s going to mask some of that progress. And overall, we view that as a positive. I think it’s neutral over the short-term, with only a couple of months left in the year, but a positive as we look to 2024, because essentially we have people occupying units that are not paying rent. And so if that unit becomes vacant, it’s not vacancy, but essentially that’s neutral trade-out. And we’re offering concessions to refill — backfill these units as quickly as possible.

And at that point, you have somebody occupying the unit that will be paying full market rent in the near term. So it sets us up favorably for 2024. And with regards to renewals. renewals is where you’re seeing our comp show up. Renewals are insulated from some of the choppiness of the day-to-day pricing strategy as we’ve increased incentives to backfill these units. But what you’re seeing in October is essentially 50-50 gross rent growth and then also concession burn-off in that 5.3%. And I expect for the quarter, renewals will be pretty consistent. We’ve sent them out around 5% and we’ll monitor conditions closely. We may negotiate those a little bit, but expect those to be fairly consistent through Q4.

Eric Wolfe: Got it, thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.

Daniel Tricarico: Hey. It’s Daniel Tricarico with Nick. Thanks for taking the question. First question is on market rent growth thoughts for next year. With the 0.5% supply growth you gave in the sub, just curious what sort of demand environment would drive negative market rent growth next year, given that supply backdrop? Just looking to sensitize possible outcomes.

Angela Kleiman: Yeah, that’s a good question. It’s Angela here. We — one of the reasons why we held off on publishing our macro outlook is because we listen to our investors feedback to better understand the value of publishing that outlook because that ultimately impacts our view on market rent growth. And we have decided not to change — I mean to change our approach to — so we would provide the outlook early next year so it aligns better with the timing and the release of our guidance. And so — I wanted to give you that backdrop, but ultimately the market fundamentals really are going to be impacted by a couple of factors. And we start with looking at the third-party macroeconomist forecast, which is still evolving and we’ve not seen anyone with a robust outlook, but it is too early to predict.

What we will say is that Essex is in a better position relative to other markets due to low supply that you mentioned earlier, which of course reduces the risk to rent growth and of course having some potential upside when it comes to future demand. And so those are all the different moving pieces that we are evaluating at this time.

Daniel Tricarico: No, that’s good. Thanks for that, Angela. And the next question would be on just your different regions. SoCal has been your strongest, but curious if you could see that gap to Northern California and Seattle remaining or maybe converging next year. Any thoughts on the puts and takes there? Thank you.

Angela Kleiman: Well. I think, Northern California is our steady Eddie market and it has a profile — employment profile that’s similar to that of the US, but with higher level of professional services. So the land remains constant. In Northern California, we do expect that recovery will come. Of course, the timing is the question, right and so ultimately it should outperform, if nothing for the sake of it’s still in the recovery mode. And so that’s how we’re thinking about the two regions.