Enerplus Corporation (NYSE:ERF) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Wade Hutchings: Yes, I think you’ve hit on it, Ian. Just maybe a little deeper color on new pads. Even if you go and look at the production that we got from those two Little Knife pads in the second quarter, and then look at how anyone would have tried to forecast those into the third quarter, we had a pretty wide band of uncertainty. You now see what those did in the third quarter. They were — continue to be very robust. But any time you have new pads coming online, and they’ve only been online for 15 to 45 days. There’s still a fairly broad range of uncertainty around how those will perform. We anticipate that each of those wells will have, sometime in the first few months, get — will run tubing, we’ll add the first artificial lift. But even the timing of that is all dependent on well performance. And that ends up driving, on a well-by-well basis, how much production you get in that ensuing quarter.

Patrick O’Rourke: Okay. Maybe then just shifting gears in terms of return on capital philosophy here. Execution on the NCIB has been very strong. We saw the October filing last night, again, impressive stuff. Just wondering, with respect to the dividend, the yield is a little bit lower than some of the peers today. Your payout ratio and what we’re modeling for 2024 is also much lower when you consider the capital program, and that sort of liability or obligation for that dividend. So just wondering about the approach with respect to scaling of that element of the return of capital program, how that kind of plays into your thinking as a shareholder value proposition, and sort of how we can think about the ratability of it going forward.

Ian Dundas: With the focus specifically on the dividend, Patrick? When you said our payouts are low, presuming you’re talking about the simple payout on the dividend.

Patrick O’Rourke: When I look at the capital program, plus the dividend that we’re anticipating, and understanding that the swing factor in terms of return of capital is that buyback, but just wondering how aggressive you feel you could be with dividend growth here.

Ian Dundas: We’ll be balanced in dividend growth. Yes, I mean we’re — I guess, our dividend is lower than some. Certainly, our base is a little bit lower. We don’t have a variable construct or a special. And this will sound familiar to you, as we’ve thought about that construct, we see value in that in the stock. We think we’re trading under intrinsic. And we don’t see any signals in the market that suggest different structures are being particularly being capitalized in a particular different way. And so we’re really comfortable with these kind of valuations leaning into the buyback. And so we’re interested in the dividend going up, and it will sort of go up in the normal course as we reduce the share count. And as you — though we raised it last quarter — so we’ll keep looking at that.

But right now, in the context of how we see the market, we think that share buyback is really pretty attractive. I think we see some of that on the stock performance. For us, that compounding effect of buying stock at these kind of levels is — it feels like a money machine that’s going to pay dividends as it work over time. And I think you probably have noticed, we’ve sort of been increasing as we continue to de-lever, increasing that return to shareholders. Now, Jodi indicated, we’re thinking next year looks like approximately 70% return on free cash flow. So I think it’s all moving in a pretty good direction.

Patrick O’Rourke: Okay, thank you very much.

Ian Dundas: Thanks, Patrick.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your next question will be from Jamie Kubik at CIBC. Please go ahead.

James Kubik: Yes, good morning and thanks for taking my question. A bit of a two-pronged question here. So I guess we’ve seen overall Bakken natural gas volumes continue to climb in recent months. Although depending on the data that you look at it, gas to oil ratios seem to be pretty stable over the last couple of years. Just wondering if you can maybe comment a bit on what you’re seeing in your portfolio on that side. And then maybe also discuss what’s driven some of the outperformance in NGL production in recent quarters?