Energy Recovery, Inc. (NASDAQ:ERII) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ryan Pfingst : Yes. Hey, good afternoon guys.

David Moon: Hey, Ryan.

Ryan Pfingst : Josh you were just talking about how next year you expect revenue to be heavily weighted to the second half once again. Is that something you expect to continue to be the typical seasonality going forward as it’s now going to be a few years where we see the second half comprised most of the revenue here?

Joshua Ballard: I don’t think so. We do tend to have slightly higher Q4, I guess, on average probably but these two years are a little unique at least in my five-plus years here and as I look in past. So, I wouldn’t call out seasonality yet. If it happens again in 2025 I might change my mind Ryan. But for now I would expect this to be just 2024.

Ryan Pfingst : Okay. That’s helpful. And then for desalination, can you just help us reconcile the 80% line of sight that you have to the 2026 target with the delays you’re seeing in the near term maybe just provide a little bit more color about the delays and how or when you’d expect those to abate to give you confidence in that 80% number for 2026?

Joshua Ballard: Yes. Yes. Most of the delays are pushing and I’ve got — I’m staring at a list in front of me it’s over $30 million of delays that we saw for 2024. Now we always see shifts in projects. So I wouldn’t say all of these are abnormal by any means. But they are mostly shifting to 2025 and 2026. We have a couple projects shifting to 2027, but the vast bulk of them are moving to 2025 and 2026. And as you review really in the industry data is saying the same they’re really expecting these upticks back in 2025 and 2026 barring any major macroeconomic headwinds. So if you go from where we’re at in desal and assume that teens and high teens up to 20% kind of range it’s going to get you up to that $180 million $190 million-ish range of revenue by 2020 — at the end of 2026.

And frankly, we can see that 80% I talked about in the script is really based on what we see in our mega project space and within the pipeline as you know that we see quite far out with — so — and then assumptions on our smaller project space and aftermarket. So we have — where we sit today some real comfort in that. Now granted the macro economy can play with us the time like we’re seeing next year. But if things revert back to normal and start to normalize I think we should see that uptick.

Ryan Pfingst : Got it. Thanks for that. And then I’ll just sneak one more in and stick with water. For the geographical breakdown in Middle East and North Africa obviously have comprised the majority of revenue in recent years. Could you just talk about going forward how much of the overall revenue or maybe just how much of the growth is expected to be driven by markets outside the Middle East?

Joshua Ballard: Yes. When you look out to 2024, it’s actually not the Middle East. We’re seeing a slowdown in the Middle East in 2024 and we’re seeing other areas especially Asia and South America make up that difference. As we look further out though the Middle East is going to be — it’s a little lumpy, because we have some large projects for example like Neom, in Saudi that we’re going to see fall into these upcoming years and some other countries as well. So it’s a little lumpy but we still see some strong demand in the Middle East and also importantly because we’re still going through this transition from thermal desalination plants to reverse osmosis desal plants and we still have a pretty big pipeline of that to come forward in the coming years and we expect that to occur as well.

So it’s going to be a little bit lumpy but we are seeing a shift to other regions of the world most certainly next year although I think the Middle East will still pop back up pretty strong in ’25 or ’26. Is that helpful?

Ryan Pfingst: Yes, super helpful. Thanks for the answers. I’ll turn it back.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Pavel Oliva [ph] who is a Private Investor. Please proceed with your questions.