Embraer S.A. (NYSE:ERJ) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Myles Walton: Okay. Okay. And then one last one. The GTF issue and the accelerated inspection and replacement on their powdered metal. Can you comment as it relates to effects you’re seeing on your E2 fleet or you expect on your E2 fleet? And then also, with respect to OGMA, what’s the kind of revenue opportunity from the OGMA MRO opportunity for the GTF?

Francisco Gomes Neto: No. Absolutely. Well, first, I mean, there’s no inspection planned for GTF E2 this year, 2023. Pratt & Whitney announced recently that the E2s will be less impacted, because the aircraft arrived later in the market with a more mature configuration of the engines and also the aircraft is lighter than the other models. So this puts the E2 in a — E2 is not — they’re not immune of the issues, but they put the E2s in a, I’d say, in a better situation in terms of performance for our customers. And the process is still working in this inspection schedule for the E2s related to the powdered metal issue. The other question was? OGMA and your opportunity of the revenues.

Francisco Gomes Neto: Yes. Okay. OGMA is moving very fast. I mean, in preparation for the SOP of the GTF engines that is planned for April 2024 and that is a very important contract for OGMA that will help OGMA to triple its revenues in the next two years or three years.

Myles Walton: Very good. Thanks, Francisco.

Antonio Carlos Garcia: Thanks, Myles.

Francisco Gomes Neto: You’re welcome.

Operator: Our next question comes from Filipe Nielsen, Citi. Please proceed.

Filipe Nielsen: Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the results. I have two on my side. The first one, if you’re seeing any relief or possible relief in terms of scope clauses in the U.S., as you mentioned, several campaigns going forward. And the second one is, how do you expect to close the free cash flow gap to reach the 2023 guidance that you gave? I saw that you still have cash burn for nine months and you maintain your guidance of free cash flow generation of $150 million. So just wanted to hear your thoughts, how do you expect to get there? Thanks.

Francisco Gomes Neto: Filipe, thanks for the question. First, related to the scope clause, we don’t see any movements to change the, no, to — for the relaxation of the scope clause. But to be honest, we don’t see really an impact for Embraer. So, I mean, our E175-E1 is the workhorse of regional aviation in the U.S., and now with improvements, we are seeing the pilot situation. This will open the door for more sales of the E175-E1s in the U.S. In parallel, we are working with the mainlines in the U.S. to convince them to introduce the E2s, the E195-E2s, to complement the big narrowbodies in order to offer higher frequency of flights to passengers in order to explore new routes in a very attractive cost benefit with the E195-E2s. So, related to the margin, now I ask Antonio to help here.

Antonio Carlos Garcia: Cash flow.

Francisco Gomes Neto: Cash flow, yes.

Antonio Carlos Garcia: Filipe, good morning. Filipe, the cash flow, to be honest, is the, I would say, where we do see much more potential to be, to have some upsides than downsides. For sure, if you ask me today, we are negative, but assuming that 40% of the whole business is going to be done in Q4, we are going to deliver more than $2 billion in revenue and get the cash inflow and some of those parts, you are even not able to pay in advance. That’s why we do see a con — more concentration on cash inflow in Q4 and less cash outflows, combined with the reduction of inventories. That’s more or less where we do see the cash flow going and we also have M&A that we just closed, was announced last Friday, with also a cash inflow of $45 million, which helps this equation to be, I would say, highly positive for the year.

Filipe Nielsen: Thanks very much, guys.

Operator: Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

Kristine Liwag: Hey. Good morning, Antonio. Good morning, Francisco.

Antonio Carlos Garcia: Good morning.

Francisco Gomes Neto: Good morning, Kris.

Kristine Liwag: 4Q 2023 — 4Q is historically seasonally strong for deliveries. So first, how is the supply chain executing for you to feel confident that you could deliver on your expected customer deliveries in 4Q? And also, looking at the midpoint of your 2023 EBIT margin guide for the year, 4Q would have to be around 9.6% in EBIT. So based on execution of what you’ve seen so far and availability of parts, how confident are you at meeting this?

Francisco Gomes Neto: Okay. Kristine, I’ll start with the deliveries in Q4. Then Antonio will complement with the EBIT. I mean, we are — we have been working very, very closely to our suppliers in order to mitigate the issues. We are getting the parts, but we are getting some parts late. So this puts pressure on our production process, not only production process, but the delivery process as well, right? As you know me, moving to the right, more to the December and that’s a more difficult month. But we are still confident that we will be at the lower end of our guidance in terms of delivery and even more confident that we will deliver the financial results in the guides for the year. So, Antonio?

Antonio Carlos Garcia: So, Kristine, good morning. Antonio speaking here. Thanks for the question. In regards to the EBIT side, we do maps every single day, but one important point here, we are going to deliver, if you reach the low end of the guidance for the Executive Aviation, we are going to deliver more than 50 aircraft. And is there where we do see the highest EBIT come in together with the Service side? I would say, that’s more or less what the margin should bring us. We are seeing today the EBIT and the EBITDA margin to mid-range of the guidance, to be more precise.

Kristine Liwag: Thank you. And then also taking a step back, Francisco and Antonio, the stabilization of the business after COVID-19 and after the breakup with Boeing, too. I mean, it’s very clear that the company is now in a harvest period. So with the balance sheet in a pretty strong place, there’s no significant maturities in the next few years, how do we think about capital deployment priorities for 2024 and beyond? So are you thinking of potentially another new airplane launch or is this a period where shareholders could get incremental return either through dividends or buybacks? How do you think about those priorities? And maybe that’s a more appropriate question for your Investor Day, but I thought, I’ll just start off with that.