EastGroup Properties, Inc. (NYSE:EGP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And all of these cases our pitch has been where we may not be your highest bidder, but where you’re most certain that we have the line of credit, we have zero outstanding of roughly a low balance on it most of kind of second and the third quarter, we have the ability to close and we know this market was submarket. And so that’s actually worked where our bidding average has been much lower and then just anecdotally talking to our three regionals. We have good relationships with the national marketing firms and brokerage firms, and we’ll get calls that the ratio of inbound calls is really increased all of a sudden were a more attractive buyer. And I think it’s just been our ability to kind of acquire so all of a sudden acquisition, and I don’t think the window will stay open terribly long.

But if our equity price where they are, it’s not today, but where it was an awful lot of third quarter if we can kind of buy new assets and below market rents and get that spread on investments, what we’ve lined up shut out a little more than $0.05 to next year’s earnings on a run rate, with $140 million. And the average building is probably literally 2 years old of those four that we’ve acquired. So we liked that model. And if we can pursue that strategy, we don’t have the capital today, equities not priced like that, and it’s below our NAV. But we’ll walk continue to watch that window. And so we’ve seen some interesting opportunities. And I think we won’t change what we’re doing. But in terms of products or markets, that I think we should pivot our strategy as the market gives us those opportunities.

Jeffrey Spector: Great. Thank you. Very helpful. My one follow-up is on, again, the comment you made in on declines in industrial starts. Are you able to quantify, I guess like the decrease in supply 2024 over 2023 in industrial, whether it’s national or in your markets, do you have any stats on that?

Marshall Loeb: Some of the best I could point, which I hate them, essentially we said this is one call, which we had a zoom call with slides, on our investor presentation, and we just set this up late yesterday. So it’s about Page 12 will show you the vacancy rates by size for anyone that wants to flip through them and about and I may be off the page, but I’m in the zip code, about Page 10, you’ll see national starts. And they fall in 4 quarters in a row, and the third quarter last year, which was the peak and we’re down to quarter-to-quarter of almost two-thirds this quarter. And shallow bay usually makes up and there’s another chart that I’m going to share with the shallow bay numbers on our webcast. It’s pretty far down, it’s usually 10% to 15% of supply, we felt like in any markets competitive.

So the whole thing was starts falling off and the supply construction pipeline empty now, they’ll be a vacuum for a bit, which should have may enable us kind of earlier question to really push them less. And then it’ll be a minute before we get there, but should also allow us with our parks, to really if I’m being an optimist hope up ramp up our development pipeline, because people will need expansion space, down the road in 2024, if they feel better about the economy. And usually that’s when our developments leased up quickly, when there’s lack of available product on the market that people have to go ahead and sign up pre-lease and things like that. So, hopefully, that’s helpful to you, you’ll see the start kind of graph. And then vacancy is, where our vacancy hasn’t moved very much what an average building size under 100,000 feet, where the vacancies really moved is kind of when you get to 300,000 square feet and above.

That’s where most of the new product, because that’s mostly what’s been built and where you could put a lot of capital work the last few years and it’s worked until all of a sudden, people got nervous about the economy. And that’s stopped and I’ve always said I like where we kind of fit on the playground.

Jeffrey Spector: Great. Very helpful. Thank you.

Marshall Loeb: Thanks, Jeff.

Operator: Our next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead with your question.

Alexander Goldfarb: Hey, good morning down there. Marshall, two questions, I guess one question, one follow-up. First, on this supply dropping out there. Presumably this is helping you guys as one of the sole, people who can develop on your own, not having to borrow? So are you seeing this as increased opportunity? And you guys want to ramp it up? Or are the global concerns and sort of all the risks that we read about interest rates, et cetera, mean that you’re probably going to keep your development program at this level right now? Just trying to understand as we look out over the next year or two where you guys are thinking about putting their shovels?

Marshall Loeb: Yeah. That’s a good question. I think, we’ve always said we’ll go as fast or as slow as really the market dictates, Phase 3 and a park is moving slowly. We’re not going to roll into Phase 4, but if we run out of inventory, and especially if we have tenants telling us they need expansion space or neighbors will move pretty quickly, we always try to have permit in hand. So we’ll be looking into next year, I think the market will get tight, hopefully in the back half of the year tighter, because what comes out of the pipeline’s not being replaced, where we are seeing opportunities is, over the past few years, there’s been such an appetite for industrial product, that developers have been able to go through the permitting, zoning, all that kind of – it could take years, usually 1.5 years at a minimum, and in some cases, 3 years to get the wetlands every issue so that you’re ready to break ground.