Cushman & Wakefield plc (NYSE:CWK) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: The next question is from Michael Griffin with Citi. Please go ahead.

Michael Griffin: Great, thanks. Maybe just piggybacking off of your previous response there, Michelle, on the PM/FM business. You talked about organic growth initiatives you’re going to undertake. Is there any chance you can quantify some of those initiatives for us? And any color around that would be helpful.

Michelle MacKay: Yeah. I mean I’m not going to quantify it for you today, but I will tell you that you’re always going to see a toggle between us deleveraging and investing for growth, right? We’re not just pushing on one pedal. We’re going to push on both pedals at the same time. Services, the duration, the nature of that particular business for us, is really valuable in relationship to our other business. And when you think of it in pockets, think about GOS, think about asset and think about CW Services, and those are going to be key areas that we target for investment.

Michael Griffin: Got you. That’s helpful. And then maybe just on the capital markets business. For the deals that are trading, I mean, can you give us a sense of what’s out there, what buyers are expecting, if anything, where buyers and sellers are? And anything there would be helpful.

Michelle MacKay: Yes. I mean I think there’s a lot of friction in the surface still with regard to clearing levels and trading. And you clearly have movement of cash flow, flight to quality in the assets as well. 60% to 65% of the deals we actually see getting done are still in industrial and multifamily. And those are the two sectors that buyers, sellers and lenders have the most confidence in. There’s strong buildup in capital for opportunistic, right? There’s a lot of dry powder out there, and investors are also getting anxious to deploy it. So we don’t think it’s a matter of is it going to happen, right? It’s going to happen, but we probably have a couple more months before we really start to see volume in terms of clearing in the stress and distressed markets.

Operator: The next question is from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Ronald Kamdem: Yeah, just two quick ones. So one on the capital markets recovery, I think a lot of the peers have talked about sort of a second half ’24, which obviously is probably a year later than we all expected. How is that being determined? Is it just sort of, hey, the macro is going to be better, so therefore, people have to transact? Or is there something more that we should be looking for, for those deals to unwind? I’m just trying to figure out, like, how are we pinning down the days for a recovery? Or is it just based on the macro? Thanks.

Michelle MacKay: Okay. Yeah. I mean I think rate stabilization is the key, right? That leads to cap rate stabilization, that leads to stronger transaction activity. So I think when we’re all taking a point of view that leans toward the second half of next year, a lot of it has to do with what the curve looks like, right? You want to have a normalized curve. The real estate markets have functioned for 50 years, right, when the 10-year was above 5% and functioned well. So we’re waiting for the timing to happen so that we have a normalized curve and people can start to transact around that versus waiting for when is the fund going to come out next.

Ronald Kamdem: Got it. And then my next question was just on — just going back to the cash flow statement, it looks like there was a lot of cash that flowed through this quarter. Just any sort of one-timer and as we’re thinking about the back half of the year, any other sort of one-off that we should think about as we’re translating EBITDA to cash flow?