Crane Company (NYSE:CR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Damian Karas: Makes sense. Thanks for all that detail. And then I guess, switching to PFT, orders seem to be faring a good bit better than I think you’ve been expecting. Could you maybe just break down how much positive price uplift you’re still getting in orders versus volume levels? And just any color you can maybe give on demand trends you’re seeing?

Max Mitchell: All right. I’ll take a stab at the demand trends first and then move to the second question. Just overall, I would say nothing material has changed overall in the profile. We saw some — a nice uptick in the quarter, which was a good — maybe less expected to happen in the quarter on a few projects. We had a few nice project wins, combination of China and in North America in the chemical space. So that really did complete the order profile a little bit here in the quarter, which is fantastic, but it doesn’t change that underlying trend that we had been talking about all year. If anything, it might have moved slightly to the right, right? And so instead of fundamental orders, I think inflecting negative here in September, October, it’s probably going to happen in December, right?

But the overall trend is going to happen the way we suggested and then revert to go negative next year and then revert back at the end of 2024. So no real significant change there. On price, it really depends on which part of the business that you — that we talk about. In our water, wastewater business, it’s probably 50-50 in our process markets, just given where the markets are today, it’s more skewed towards price. And our — and then we have a couple of other pockets where it’s probably 50-50 as well in the smaller parts of the business that we have. So I would say no significant trends changing on price and volume and backlog, but that’s the way I would think about it across the segment.

Damian Karas: Really helpful. Thanks, guys.

Max Mitchell: Welcome.

Operator: Our next question come from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Max Mitchell: Hi, Matt.

Matt Summerville: Hey, guys. Thank you. I just — I want to talk about how should — how should we be thinking about the mix for A&E going forward into 2024 between commercial and military? And then I want to be clear, are you still sort of faced with, I think, Rich, coming out of Q2, you indicated $60 million to $65 million of supply chain stranded revenue. Is that still sort of the right figure for where the business sits today? And then I have a follow-up.

Rich Maue: Just on the stranded and then you can take the mix. The — we started off the year saying if we could ship with no supply chain constraints on a normalized level, what’s being held up in backlog, and that number was $50. I think today, we’d probably say it’s probably somewhere between $65 million and $70 million, somewhere in that range, Matt. That’s not the same — I just want to make sure investors understand that it’s not like trapped $65 million to $70 million. This is just a rough number. We’re just saying if we were completely unconstrained, what could we get out the door. So it has grown slightly. We continue to — this gets to the Q3 expedite challenges that we have, and we’re doing all we can. We’re required to drive some inefficiencies to make sure our customers are satisfied but that number is probably $65 million to $70 million right now on the mix.

Max Mitchell: Yes. And on the mix, what I would say is, we’re going to continue to see, I think, strong aftermarket as we move through 2024. It’s not going to be as strong as we saw this year on a percent basis, but it will still be relatively strong. OEs are going to be, I would say, increasing at a faster pace relative to 2023. So you could have a slight — it won’t be an overwhelming mix differential, if anything, it might be on the negative side, just given OEs have to get their — have to get shipments out and up, right? So — but the aftermarket is still solid. If that helps you. It’s a little early for us to give too much guidance on that, Matt, right now. We’re definitely going to be providing a lot more in January, but that’s the high level.

Matt Summerville: Yes. No, I mean the fact you gave 2024 commentary in general, I think, is absolutely a positive. Sticking with A&E then for my follow-up, as we think about all of the programmatic wins you’ve been calling out, specifically those that you’re probably not able to call out. When do we start to see an upward inflection in revenue contribution start to kick-in from some of those wins? And based on — again, this is several quarters in a row you guys keep calling out new wins you’ve had. At some point, do you need to revisit that 7% to 9%? Thank you.

Max Mitchell: Yes. That’s a great question. And a lot of the wins are fantastic demonstrator platforms that are a little bit later, but we would expect to see some significant movement in 2025, I would say. It will –

Rich Maue: That will have significant move in 2025 programs that are…

Max Mitchell: Yes. I mean the one program in particular, we have the retrofit upgrade for the F-16 brake control, right? And that’s absolutely going to be hitting in 2025 as well as a number of other defense — exactly defense they used high-power platform. So they’ll start in that period as well. We might have a little bit of low rate initial production on a couple at the end of next year, but I don’t think it’s going to be overly meaningful next year.

Rich Maue: But to your point, Matt, I mean, the team is doing a phenomenal job. We continue this multiyear investment in technology. We’re on exciting programs to continue to ramp up. We’ve won and executed on programs that are reading through today and into 2024, and then the content that we have on secured ramping up both in our Burbank facility, Fort Walton Beach facility. I mean, there’s some significant investment in growth in readiness and our teams are all over it. We’re ahead of schedule. So I feel really good about it. And we keep painting this picture of all the demonstrators and all the future programs that we’re on, which goes out even a decade out and more. So, just incredibly well positioned.

Matt Summerville: Great. Thank you, guys.

Rich Maue: Thanks, Matt.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Nathan Jones of Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Nathan Jones: Good morning, everyone. Very well. Thanks, Max. How are you?

Max Mitchell: Good.

Nathan Jones: A question on A&E. And zooming out a little bit from the 3Q, 4Q questions, Rich, you talked about several, I guess, there are sources of expenses and inefficiencies around expedited shipping, qualifying second sources, higher development expenses, these kinds of things, which are obviously — some of these are good. You’re continuing to make yourself a trusted supply with your customer’s development expenses they are always good because they’re future revenue. Is there a way you can quantify some of the inefficiencies that are in the system around especially things like the supply chain costs, doesn’t sound like you’re thinking they’re going away in 2024. Does that then build in some more margin expansion as we get out into 2025 and 2026, as those things normalize?

Rich Maue: Yeah. I think we would agree with you to try to quantify that would be a bit of a challenge or I’d be hesitant to do that now, we can think about how we might try to frame that up when we give guidance in January or at Investor Day certainly. But there definitely is cost in the system that’s related to the supply chain here that’s been happening all year. Even the numbers I called out. These were not necessarily all unexpected, and they were existing as we move through the year. They’re a little bit higher here in Q3, but not really a lot more.