BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) delivered the clearest evidence yet that its earnings center has shifted. Copper generated $18.19 billion of underlying EBITDA in the year ended June 30, overtaking iron ore’s $14.53 billion and contributing more than half of group EBITDA for the first full year. Underlying attributable profit rose 30% to $13.2 billion, above consensus estimates of $12.66 billion, while Australian shares climbed as much as 4.2% to a two-month high.
The balance sheet reinforced the message. BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) reduced net debt to $8.69 billion and lifted its FY2026 dividend to $1.72 per ordinary share, the highest in four years. The question is whether investors should now treat this as a structural copper transformation or another commodity-price windfall.
For BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP), the portfolio shift is already visible in capital allocation. The miner expects average annual capital and exploration spending of about $11 billion over the medium term, with more than half directed toward copper growth. BHP estimates that its project pipeline could increase attributable copper production by approximately 40% by fiscal 2035.
BULL CASE: COPPER GROWTH IS BECOMING THE CORE BUSINESS
BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) is not starting this transition from a speculative position. It produced approximately 2 million metric tons of copper for a second consecutive year and describes itself as the world’s largest copper producer. BHP expects its copper-growth program to be self-funding at consensus commodity prices.
The demand case also extends beyond one price cycle. BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) expects global copper demand to rise from 34 million metric tons in 2026 to more than 50 million by 2050, driven partly by expanding power networks and data centers. If BHP’s copper pipeline delivers its targeted approximately 5% annual attributable copper-equivalent growth from fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2035, including byproducts, investors would have stronger grounds to assign the company a growth narrative rather than a purely cyclical one.
BEAR CASE: PRICES, NOT VOLUMES, DROVE THE BREAKOUT
The earnings mix changed faster than the production mix. BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) held copper output near 2 million metric tons, while record spot copper prices, which rose above $14,000 per metric ton, powered the profit increase. BHP’s average realized copper price increased 35% to $5.74 per pound. Copper byproducts including gold, silver and uranium contributed $4.5 billion of revenue, up 45%.
That makes the comparison with iron ore less decisive than it first appears. BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) still relies on its low-cost iron ore business for substantial cash flow, while copper expansion requires multiple large projects to clear approvals, construction, and ramp-up. Final investment decisions for Vicuña Stage 1 and Escondida’s new concentrator remain ahead, while other growth projects are still being evaluated.
INSIDER MONKEY’S HEDGE FUND DATA
The filings available so far reflect positions held before BHP released its full-year results and copper-growth outlook. Insider Monkey’s database showed 31 hedge funds holding BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) at the end of March 2026, down from 29 funds three months earlier.
CONCLUSION
BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) has earned the beginning of a portfolio re-rating, but not the full copper-growth premium. Copper is now the largest earnings contributor, capital allocation is following it, and the balance sheet can support expansion without abandoning dividends.
For the miner, the next test is physical rather than financial: turn the pipeline into sustained production growth. Until that happens, earnings will remain highly sensitive to copper prices. Iron ore will remain an important source of cash-flow flexibility as BHP pursues a copper-growth program it expects to be self-funding at consensus prices.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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