Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE:CPA) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So that will provide some CASM benefits. Third, we continue working with our efficiencies in terms of overhead and some of the growth that — efficiencies that we get with the growth that we have for next year. And finally, while we’re on track to resolve the feeding issues that we’ve had with the leap. So I think that’s another one that you have to consider over the next several months as well.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

Michael Linenberg: Jose, I want to go back to just on next year’s 12% to 14% frequency. It sounds like 5% to 10% of the ASMs are going to be new service. Maybe more specifically, what is the plan with a number of new dots on the map or a number of new cities? Is this 2 or 3 or 4 cities? Is it going to be like what we saw this year where you added — I think it was what 4 new cities, maybe 5 new cities?

Pedro Heilbron: Mike, I’ll answer that one. So maybe we’ll help a bit more — maybe we’ll have a little bit more information in February and we’ll make a few announcements. But right now, there’s not much we can share. We’re working on many possibilities. And it should be more than a few but we don’t want to give a target because we don’t really know it’s kind of early and we’re still planning; we usually start new cities midyear and at the end of the year. So we still have some months to go.

Michael Linenberg: Very good. Just my second question, Wingo is 9 airplanes now, in a more frequency or more routes as we move through this year. Is the plan to keep Wingo at 9 airplanes in 2024?

Pedro Heilbron: That is the plan — that’s the plan as of right now, given the dynamics of the Colombian market and yes. So yes, that’s the plan right now.

Michael Linenberg: Okay. Great. And then just my last question, when I think about you have a significant cost of capital advantage, when I think about some of the other big debt deals that we’ve seen some of your competitors launched over the last 12 to 18 months. And so that 3.4% cost of debt that’s low. As we think about the 10 or 11 airplanes that have already been financed with JOLCOs, does that change that 3.4%? How should we think about your average financing as you reach for’24?

Jose Montero: Yes. I’ll give you a data point, Mike and you could argue that an incremental aircraft right now, it’s in the range of around 5% so we’re a little higher. But we — by the way, we have our — 80% of our fleet is financed on their fixed rate. So the changes in interest rates have not affected us significantly. But given the current environment, our last set of aircraft on variable rates. So we’ll enjoy the benefit of if and when rates come down. So — but it’s around the 5% range, still very good.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Rogerio Araujo with Bank of America.

Rogerio Araujo: Congratulations on the results, I have 2, one on RASM. I know you didn’t provide any guidance for ’24 but can you give us the — what you’re seeing in the booking curve for next year? Can you give us an expected direction? Is it coming down versus 2023 because of extra capacity coming in or it’s still unknown at this moment? And the second question is regarding a mismatch between jet fuel price and oil in 3Q. It didn’t happen only for Copa but all the peers in the region. What is driving that? Is it sustainable going forward?

Pedro Heilbron: Okay. So I’ll start with the first one. And yes, we’re not giving RASM guidance for ’24. Still early and our visibility is always like 3 months or 2 months into the future. So what we’re seeing so far which would be early 2024, is that the revenue strength stayed robust, it’s following the same trend we’ve seen in Q3 and Q4. So even with the capacity that you mentioned, revenues are staying strong so far.

Jose Montero: Yes. In terms of fuel mismatch between jet and crude, yes, the crack of jet fuel spiked during the quarter and it’s in the range. It’s a little bit over $40 right now per barrel. So it’s historically — not historically high but it is at a higher level than what it was on a regular basis. And — but you know what, we’ve learn to manage our fuel expense and in terms of recapping or recouping some of this incremental expense in our unit revenues and we’ve done that in the fourth quarter with our revised guidance. And so it’s — I think in the end, it’s something we know how to do.

Rogerio Araujo: Sounds great. And one follow-up on that last one. Is the few guidance, it includes the current curve?

Jose Montero: Yes, yes, absolutely. It’s a current jet curve as of like 2 days ago, yes. So we — there — it’s all in. It’s our average fuel price all in. We see $0.06 above the last guidance that we provided by in August.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Stephen Trent with Citi.

Stephen Trent: I definitely appreciate the color on 2024. As you think about that build-out, are you content with maintaining those 6 daily flight banks at Tocumen? Or do you think you could make some possible adjustment to that with the 2024 growth?

Pedro Heilbron: Yes. Not in ’24. I mean we could make adjustments in the future but that’s not the plan in ’24. We think we can still strengthen our 6 bank structure. There are opportunities, there are gaps that we can fill and further strengthen our whole network. So that’s the plan for now.