ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) picked a good week to hand over the keys. On August 6, the company said that CEO Ryan Lance will retire after 14 years, with CFO Andy O’Brien stepping in on September 1, right when ConocoPhillips had its best quarterly results since 2022. Adjusted profit came in at $3.24 a share, well ahead of the $2.88 Wall Street expected, and revenue jumped 32.4% to $19.5 billion.
Why a Beat and a Miss Told Two Different Stories
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) pulled off that strong quarter even as production slipped nearly 6% to 2.25 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, leaning instead on a 36% jump in realized prices to carry the results. O’Brien, a nearly 30-year company veteran, inherits a $7 billion free cash flow growth pledge through 2029 that depends heavily on finishing the pricey Willow oil project in Alaska. It is a project whose price tag has already climbed to $9 billion.
One of the company’s rivals, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) told a different story the week before. On July 31, the firm posted its biggest quarterly profit in four years at $14.7 billion, up 67% from the first quarter. It still came up short of the $3.60-per-share estimate with adjusted earnings of $3.52. Its shares fell 1% on the news.
So why did ConocoPhillips’s win move the stock while Exxon’s four-year-high profit left investors cold?
Oil platform
ConocoPhillips’s Bull and Bear Case
This was the company’s best quarter in years. Handing over the CEO job to a 30-year insider, O’Brien, removes a lot of the uncertainty that usually comes with leadership changes, right as the company chases its $7 billion cash flow target.
Nonetheless, on August 7, Barclays analyst Betty Jiang notes that Willow alone underpins nearly 75% of that free cash flow growth plan, and its rising cost is a real threat. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) shares have also lagged Exxon and Chevron over the past three years due to heavy spending, analysts note.
ExxonMobil’s Bull and Bear Case
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM)’s $14.7 billion profit was its best in four years. Permian output hit a record above 1.8 million barrels a day. The company recovered its Guyana development costs roughly two years ahead of schedule, which frees up more cash down the road.
However, Exxon still missed the Street’s per-share number, production dipped from the prior quarter, and roughly 450,000 barrels a day remain offline in Qatar because of the Iran war, with no clear end in sight.
Insider Monkey’s Hedge Fund Data
Insider Monkey’s hedge fund database shows Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) losing a bit of favor, with 94 holders as of Q1 2026, down from 98 the quarter before. ConocoPhillips saw real momentum build with 74 holders, up from 65, and the dollar value hedge funds held in the stock jumped from about $5.47 billion to $7.51 billion.
Another rival, Chevron, moved the other way, up to 103 holders from 86.
Conclusion
ConocoPhillips enters the rest of the year in a great position, with a smooth leadership transition and its strongest quarter in years behind it. Exxon posted a four-year high in profit and still couldn’t clear Wall Street’s bar. The takeaway for both companies is the same, i.e., doing better than you did in the past isn’t always enough to satisfy investors today.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
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