Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Dave Marberger: No, Ken. Just we’re still on track with the commitments we made at our Investor Day on the $1 billion over three years. A lot of it is just normal timing. In this environment, we’re still working through where things just take longer. If you’re ordering certain materials and things that you need to execute these CapEx projects, they’re just taking a little bit more time. So — but it’s not at all changing kind of the opportunities we see and the projects that we’re going to target.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question today comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Pamela Kaufman: So just a question on the Q4 guidance. So at the midpoint, your updated full year guidance for operating margins, implies Q4 operating margins decline year-over-year, but you’ve seen about 180 basis points of operating margin expansion year-to-date. So what’s driving that more cautious Q4 margin outlook?

Dave Marberger: Yes, Pam. Let me get — good question. So Sean had mentioned that our approach to guidance this entire fiscal year has been about being prudent. And it’s because of the volatile environment we’re in with the supply chain challenges and then the historic inflation in pricing. And we’re continuing that approach for Q4. So we still expect inflection in our gross margins, but we are building in what I’ll call a healthy level of contingency for supply chain friction costs in our cost of goods sold. Also just a more specific item regarding SG&A, we will be up in Q4 versus prior year and up versus Q3 absolute dollar levels. SG&A will be more in line with what we saw in Q2 in terms of SG&A dollars. So we expect to finish the year near that 9% in net sales level, and that’s just timing.

And then for EPS, we always forecast sort of a more moderate estimate for Ardent Mills. So that would be down versus what we delivered for Q3. So, they’re really the key drivers. I think it’s just we’re taking a prudent approach to our guidance.

Pamela Kaufman: Got it. And then just on gross margins, you’ve had very strong gross margin expansion year-to-date. How should we think about gross margins in Q4 and then into next year? Can gross margins continue to move above this 28% level? And how are you thinking about the contribution from your productivity investments?

Sean Connolly: Yes, I’d say is we were deliberate in stating off the fact that our top priority this year was on gross margin recovery. And it kind of comes back to Andrew’s point, why is that so important? Because gross margins fund our innovation program and our innovation program is how we drive high-quality sustained growth that can be margin accretive over time. This all hangs together. It’s a simple concept. So if you think about what we try to do around here as a company and our playbook, it’s all about perpetually improving our growth rates and improving our margins. And we do that in a variety of ways from the mix of our portfolio to our value over volume strategy to our relentless approach to innovation. That’s what it’s all about. So, we’re not giving long-term gross margin guidance from here, but I would just say what we’ve always said, which is philosophically, our game plan is to drive a northward trajectory on sales and gross margins into the future.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question today comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

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