Chinese Solar: First Bond Default Likely Tomorrow – Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (STP), LDK Solar Co., Ltd (ADR) (LDK)

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We’re mere hours away from the likely default of one of the largest solar manufacturers in the world: Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:STP) . The latest news reports have bondholders forcing the company into an involuntary bankruptcy tomorrow if the company doesn’t pay back $541 million in bonds. If that takes place it would be the first default for a bond issued by a company from mainland China.

Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd (NYSE:STP)

The likely default has implications for Suntech as well as many other companies in the solar industry.

What happens to Suntech?
In all likelihood, Suntech will go into some sort of default tomorrow. It’s likely that stockholders will be wiped out and bondholders will be heading to court to try and retrieve some assets. But it’s possible the company will survive in some form.

What we know for sure is that the central government or state-run banks won’t be running to Suntech’s rescue. If that were to happen it would have been done by now. Rumors are that the local Wuxi government will use its multi-billion dollar fund to bailout local manufacturing for Suntech. As I’ve said before, China’s government is more concerned with employment than losing money, which is why local governments have helped LDK Solar Co., Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:LDK) and it looks like Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:STP is next.

If the company does continue making panels it will be interesting to see how customers respond to a company that was losing loads of money, was mismanaged, and now had to be bailed out by a local government. If Suntech’s finances were bad as a well-known public company, then I would hate to see how much it loses under government control.

What about the rest of Chinese solar?
The real fun begins when we think about the future of the giant Chinese solar industry. China’s new government has said that consolidation in solar is necessary and it will allow companies to combine or fail but this is the first indication that they’ll actually let that happen. Even in the past few weeks investors thought a white knight would arrive to save Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:STP.

This has huge implications across the industry because Chinese solar manufacturers have billions of debt that they can’t possibly refinance on the open market or fund with money-losing operations.

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