CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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So good demand profile going forward. I think the imports generally tend to be balanced. And we’re well positioned with our three urea plants on the coast and then the interior to serve that need.

P.J. Juvekar: Great. Thank you.

Operator: We have a question now from Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho. Christopher. Please go ahead.

Christopher Parkinson: Great. Thank you so much. Your free cash flow conversion was pretty good adjusting for the tax payment. I’m just curious to inquire on when I look at free cash flow in the outer years, whether it’s 2023, 2024, 2025. Tony and Chris, has your idea in terms of the distribution between share buybacks and some of the blue and green projects and obviously, the support for the Japanese decarbonization initiatives. Just in the context of the IRA is that distribution of that free cash flow, has your thought process around that changed versus buybacks just given the opportunities that have continuously emerged? And then obviously, you’ve been already participating in? Just curious to hear your updated thoughts. Thank you.

Tony Will: Yes Chris. I would say the good news here is that there should be plenty for all of the above. The investments that we’re making on the decarbonization and in particular, the dehydration compression are relatively modest compared to the amount of free cash flow that we’re generating. And so our expectation is that we can continue to do all of the above. Now, I would say, given the return profile of some of those projects, particularly in light of the 45-Q tax credit that — our first call on capital is going to be investing in these kind of projects that have returns way above the cost of capital. That’s good for all seasons. But I don’t think this is a choice that we have to make as an either or.

Chris Bohn: Yes, I think, Chris, also, just how we’re looking at those projects in the clean energy segment is, as always, very disciplined, but also where we don’t have the technology or the infrastructure, looking to partner, and that really goes to the modest capital side that Tony mentioned there. I think as you look at those projects, as you mentioned, there’s not huge calls on capital at this particular time, so that leaves a lot of excess free cash flow for us to distribute to shareholders. I think the one thing we will look at differently this year is sort of that ratable versus opportunistic method in which we went about share repurchases last year. And I can just point to Q4 where with no change in the long-term fundamentals of our industry or CF in general, if anything getting better we saw our share price where we repurchased that $100 during that timeframe that today, we’re trading in the mid-80s.

So, the way we’re looking at it maybe is if the market is going to offer that large of a discount, we may do some altering to that ratable versus opportunistic type of share repurchase. And as Tony mentioned in his remarks, I think we have a history of returning cash to shareholders with the 60% of free cash flow, we returned last year.

Tony Will: I also think — and I just want to highlight one of the things Chris said is while we’re looking at a host of different clean energy initiatives and low-carbon ammonia opportunities, we are partnering with people to bring those things to reality. And so the example being if we built a new ammonia facility, our BluePoint complex in Louisiana, we’re doing that with Mitsui, who is in for almost $0.50 on the dollar. So it really does — and as you think about cash going out the door, that’s spread over four, maybe four and a half years, it really is relatively modest in the grand scheme of things, and that’s why we feel we can do all of the above here.

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