CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 2 of 12

Bert Frost : Well, we’re pleased with our order book and always look to manage those expectations and internal requirements. And we’re market sensitive. We’re wide open for Q2.

Tony Will : Yes, Steve, I think it’s fair to say, Bert sort of manages us really well. We’re comfortable in terms of the orders that we have to get us to the place where we’re expecting demand to start emerging in a very significant way in the quarter. But we’re keeping our powder dry with respect to being able to participate in that high-demand portion of the first half here.

Stephen Byrne : Understood. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citigroup. P.J., please go ahead.

P.J. Juvekar : Yes. Good morning. I have a question on your JERA agreement, where you’re supplying 0.5 million tones of clean ammonia. Where does all this ammonia come from? From which projects that you have going on, where would it come from, or do you need to build more? And would JERA uptake that in Louisiana and take it from there? And how do you price, how do you contract pricing? Is it a long-term market bid price, or what are your current initial thoughts on this?

Tony Will: Yes. Good morning, P.J. So the first sizable quantity of low-carbon ammonia is going to be available at Donaldsonville, as a result of the CO2 dehydration compression project that Chris talked about earlier in the agreement with ExxonMobil for transportation and permanent sequestration of that CO2. So we’re going to be able to sequester about 2 million metric tonnes of CO2 a year, beginning in 2025, which is about the time frame that GERA is going to begin taking some of these volumes. And so it syncs up very well with our ability to produce it with when demand is beginning to emerge. We have a framework or an MOU around the agreement, some of the specifics of whether there’s an equity investment in the project from JERA, whether or not it is strictly an off-take agreement.

All of those things are currently being discussed and we’re — we’ve got a very good relationship and a good dialogue going but more details to come as we kind of further firm things up. But suffice it to say with the availability of the 45Q tax credit and the recognition globally of the value and relative scarcity of low-carbon ammonia, we’re really excited about this development of real tangible demand showing up. And the interest on the part of consumers of this product to be involved in the equity side of the production of it as well. So to us, that’s very different than people building spec plants you’ve got kind of the base consumers that really want to vertically integrate into the production side, and that’s an exciting development.

P.J. Juvekar: Yes. My follow-up is for Bert. Bert how much urea does US need to import between now and planting season. And how much of that is already contracted at these lower prices and is on water to get here. Can you just give us an update on sort of what happens between now and planting season?

Bert Frost: Yes, on average, on a historical review of previous experiences, it’s let’s just say it’s 5 million tonnes, 1.5 million has come in, probably have 3.5 million tonnes to bring in. February and March, we’re tracking the cargoes are probably between 700 to 1 million tonnes for each month. And then it gets a little dicey for that importer because if you’re putting a vessel on the water in April, getting here in late April, early May and has to move from a coastal import port into the interior, it’s not that easy. So I think more to come on that issue. I think the other issue is demand. When you look at what the additional corn acres we targeted in our remarks of 92 to 93 and the additional wheat acres of probably 5 million acres, you’ve got, I’d say, 300, 000 to 400,000 tons of additional demand on top of the pasture acres that will be fertilized.

Page 2 of 12