CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Stephen Byrne: Yes, thank you. How do you think your Donaldsonville operations might change post the connection with Waggaman given you can — you could move those ammonia tons up into the corn belt from Waggaman and then maybe upgrade more at Donaldsonville. Is that logical? And maybe to that topic, your third quarter volumes were more ammonia than urea than we expected, even though pricing was so much better in urea, was that just some refill volumes were really robust in ammonia? Any comments on that?

Tony Will: Yes. So Steve, let me start off with a question about Waggaman. The Waggaman facility has existing supply agreements that are in place and those volumes are largely spoken for. We’re very pleased with the recipient customers for that facility. And so we’re not looking to make any changes in that regard. And our belief is we can get consistently more out of that plant than what historically it’s been able to produce. So we’re excited about that plant added to the network. Relative to Devil upgrades. We tend to run the upgrades at basically full capacity, at least the urea plants and then we swing back and forth between how much of that’s granulated versus how much UAN we make based on relative margin opportunities between the various products.

So there’s not really an opportunity to dramatically increase the amount of ammonia Donaldsonville build it to upgraded just because we’re running upgrade plans full on. Relative to the product mix in the third quarter, we did have an upset at our Medicine Hat, Alberta urea plant that took some production off-line and we had a turnaround in another facility. And so the result of that was just through both planned and unplanned maintenance, lower ability to make granular in the quarter. And therefore, we ended up with a net longer ammonia position. And Bert and his team were really focused on trying to manage kind of inventory levels and took appropriate steps to make sure we could keep the plants running full rates.

Bert Frost: That’s exactly what happened. The only thing I would add is we did export additional volumes out of Donaldsonville as we balance the system in North America. As Tony said, we had the medicine had issues, so we’re moving some of that product down, and then we had some turnaround work at one of our Oklahoma plants and then the balance then was moved to Donaldsonville and that ended up being exports at a lower value, but that’s what the values were at the time.

Tony Will: And the good news is we’re back up out of the maintenance activities and we’re running full on in terms of our urea production network again. So we’re looking forward to the fourth quarter and the first half of next year.

Stephen Byrne: That’s very helpful. And I want to just pick a brain a little bit about the outlook for blue ammonia, Tony. You have these partnership discussions with several players. It’s not just Mitsui. It’s LOTTE, it’s JERA, its POSCO. And when you think about this down the road, are these likely to result in one greenfield plant? Or could this be multiple plants? And do you have any kind of conflict in that because some might prefer an autothermal reformer whereas you were also considering steam reforming, does that play into this at all?

Tony Will: Yes, without going down the rabbit hole of technology too much here. As Chris indicated in his comments, we’re finishing up the FEED study on the conventional steam methane reforming plant, basically a carbon copy of Donaldsonville #6, which I believe is the highest operating rate ammonia plant in the world. And the fact that they’re so close together allow us to not only basically make a carbon copy of it and train operators just down the road, but also share common spare parts. And we think that the opportunity to get fantastic asset utilization out of a plant like that, right from the beginning is quite high. But as you mentioned, there is different appetites in different jurisdictions for carbon intensity. And ultimately, that’s the notion of blue ammonia or green ammonia, this convenient shorthand ultimately, where we’re going to have to get to is a measure of carbon intensity and the possibility for autothermal reforming does provide at least at first blush, a lower carbon intensity than steam methane reforming does.