Jesse Gary : Yes. So great question. Maybe I can provide a little more detail and just why we feel confident that we’ve now got it under control. So, within our refinery, in general, you’ll have some steam generation, the steam-powered electrical generation units that supply energy to the plant and also regulate the steam pressure going into the refinery. And in this case, one of our steam generation units suffered a failure originally back in the May-June time period, and then we thought we had it addressed, but it recurred in the late September time period. And we dug a little further. We’ve brought in engineers from the manufacturer who went through machine with us and have now helped us bring it back to its normal operating status. So, given those steps, again, with the engineers from the manufacturer as well, we feel confident that, that issue is now behind us.
Timna Tanners : Okay. And then when do you think you might be able to record a recovery from your insurance company? And like so what timing and also what might the deductible look like?
Jesse Gary : Sure. We won’t give specific guidance on the deductible, although it’s just a small — relatively small portion of the overall plan. So, one should not be material from a cash matching standpoint to the losses that we incurred. But that claim, we’ve just made it. So, we really need to engage with insurer to talk about timing for payment. You might look back to our 2018 claim for Sebree when we had an outage that stopped some power deliveries to the plant resulted in some production being lost. That recovery, I think, took about a year to actually get the cash in the door. So that might give you some guidance as what I may be here, although it’s hard to say at this point.
Timna Tanners : Okay. That’s helpful. And then I know there was a mention, I mean, you’re going through the guidance that if the price paid At the recent levels, there would be additional EBITDA. I just want to make sure I understood those comments correctly. Is that just to say that I think I have to go back to my notes, it was an extra $15 million to $20 million of EBITDA — and I assume that was to say that if today’s LME price were sustained through the rest of the quarter. But I just wanted to clarify what was intended by those comments.
Jesse Gary : Yes. You got it almost exactly correct, Timna. Basically, we’re just saying that cash prices today are about $100 higher than what our realized Q3 LME prices were. And so, if that were to sort of sustain going forward, if you go back to our sensitivities in our deck, you’ll see it should have about a $10 million to $15 million quarterly impact on EBITDA going forward. So, in other words, what we’re hopeful of is we have started to see some green shoots on both the demand and the supply side globally. Some of the things I talked about, we’ve seen really strong renewable demand in China, strong demand in China, both of which are things that should extrapolate to the rest of the world as the micro picks, situation rebounds.
And then we’ve also seen on the supply side, additional outage in China. So, a lot of those are what drove that LME prices start to improve. And so obviously, we’re hopeful that those trends continue. And if they do, there’s a lot of earnings power in this business as we’ve shown in previous quarters.
Timna Tanners : Okay. And then just wrapping up, if I could. On the raw material side, just looking at the guidance, I know caustic has yet to fully flow through in your numbers. But do you see a lot further downside the coke and pitch? And then remind us, if you could, on Jamalco, what alumina price is breakeven for you?
