Is China’s consumption too low?
According to a recent article by Paul Krugman,China’s biggest problem is its high investment and low consumption, which is partly due to China’s economic structure. This structure includes many government owned businesses that are mostly concerned with expansion, and cheap labor that keeps coming from villages and maintains the low wages. If cheap labor from villages will cease to flood the labor force, wages will start to rise, which will augment consumption. This transition, according to Krugman, could pull back China’s economy for a while.
China’s low inflation is an indicator for the economic progress. The current annual inflation is at 2.7%, which is much lower than Bank of China’s inflation target of 3.5%. If China’s inflation remains low, it could indicate slow progress in its economic activity.
Will China reach a credit crisis?
Another factor that might adversary affect China’s economy is the potential pending credit crisis. If China’s credit expansion will keep growing at a faster pace than its economy, it might curb China’s growth: The country might not be able to borrow more money to maintain its growth.
These theories are compelling and have some tangent points. But I think other factors are affecting China that could lead to an economic deceleration, such as high commodities prices and the global economic progress. On the one hand, rising commodities prices including crude oil, coal, gold and silver are raising China’s imports. On the other hand, the ongoing economic slowdown in many regions, including Europe, has prevented China’s exports from growing. These factors could keep curbing down China’s economy from growing in the future.
How will this slowdown affect you?
The main issue will revolve around companies that draw their growth in revenues in China. Companies such as Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) and Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) could see a decline in their revenue growth rate in the coming years, which will reflect in their stock prices.
Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM) states the drop in revenues was due to the poultry incident back in December and residual adverse effect from the avian flu. But I suspect China’s economic slowdown and strong competition from other U.S brands have pulled down the company’s revenues.
Moreover, Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM)’ profit margin in China is the lowest of all other regions at 4.6%. In comparison, the profitability in the U.S is 24.4%. Therefore, if China’s business segment rises, it will further slash the company’s profit margin. In any case, if China’s economic growth diminishes Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM)’ earnings will continue to fall, which will adversely affect the company’s future valuation.
