Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TAST) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Q – Jeremy Hamblin: Got it. And then I wanted to ask one on the dividend. Congrats on the initial dividend here. In terms of how the Board and management is thinking about the capital allocation plan and having a dividend which should kind of open you up to a broader set of potential investors is there kind of a payout ratio that the company is thinking about for a rule of thumb? I mean, the free cash flow generation is tremendous this year, I think well over $1 a share by our math. But I wanted to just get a sense, if there’s kind of a ratio that’s being targeted? And then kind of coupled with that in terms of whether or not the company is going to — would consider additional share buybacks down the road how do we balance the tension of those two?

Deborah Derby: I guess, I would just say obviously the dividend is an expression of the Board’s confidence overall just in the momentum and strength of the business, and that’s really what drove that. And I think from a capital allocation perspective as we go into next year we kind of continue to look at it with kind of a three pronged approach, which is continue obviously to pay down debt, organic growth within the business and then finding a way to return capital to shareholders. And those are kind of our three guiding principles as we move forward.

Jeremy Hamblin: Great. Last one quickly, if I could sneak this in. As we look ahead Tony to 2024, what’s the and we look at your occupancy costs what is the same-store sales level needed to lever rent next year? Are we looking at kind of 3% to 4%? Is there kind of a baseline that you’d be looking at to lever on that number?

Tony Hull: Yes. There are a lot of ins and outs for next year so that’s probably not in the highest priority of those things we’re looking at. We said in our prepared remarks that we expect to continue to grow EBITDA next year. So I think that’s basically whatever falls out of that in terms of leverage on labor or leverage on COGS, it will be where it will be. But we’ll have to — we’ll get further into that when we get into 2024.

Jeremy Hamblin: Great. congrats. Thanks for taking the question.

Tony Hull: Thank you.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] The next question is coming from Jake Bartlett of Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Jake Bartlett: Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Tony my first question is on — you gave guidance for mid-single-digit positive comps in the fourth quarter but also mid-single-digit price. So I just want to maybe get a little more specific there because it sounds like that implies flat traffic. So any detail there on the pieces of the comp in the fourth quarter? And then Tony, could you give us the exact — what the level of menu price was in the third quarter?

Tony Hull: Sure. So the menu price increase in the third quarter was 6%. And our view on traffic given all the advertising and momentum we have right now is we expect to be positive. We’re not giving specific detail beyond sort of mid-single digit, but there’s a lot of pluses and minuses but we do expect traffic to continue to increase in Q4.

Jake Bartlett: Okay. And is that outlook predicated on what’s coming ahead with the marketing the supplemental contribution from Burger King? Or is that kind of already kind of what you’re seeing? Just trying to get a sense as to how much of that is aspirational or kind of what you’re seeing in current trends?

Deborah Derby: I think, Jake it’s two things. I think it’s one obviously the increased marketing spend that we’re anticipating from Burger King, but it’s also the operational improvements that we’ve made over the past several months this year that we believe that is again the key to kind of that repeat traffic and incremental traffic. So I think all those together is what make us optimistic about the traffic continuing to be positive.

Jake Bartlett: Great. And then the kiosk rollout a pretty significant rollout across the system. I guess, it’s kind of free for you. So in terms of the ROI, I guess that’s pretty high. But what do you expect that to do? I mean are you excited about the potential for a kiosk to drive check or traffic? Is it going to be a real driver of sales in 2024?

Deborah Derby: So I think we’re very excited about it. Obviously, we’re in the early stage of rolling it out. But based on what we’ve seen from some others that have already implemented in their kiosks that we are expecting to see an increase in average check. So that’s what we’re pretty optimistic about on that one. And we also just think from a guest satisfaction, I mean in certain areas of the country people like to actually interact with the kiosk more than potentially a person just because it can be faster and that’s just how they like to do it. So I think those two things are things that we’re hoping to see realized when we do the pilot. There’s, always obviously, the possibility of labor efficiencies down the road as well depending on how far along the track you go with that. But like I said, at this point in time, we just want to kind of prove out the initial concept. And then, if that’s good then we’ll plan on taking it further.

Jake Bartlett: Great. And then last question is on the remodel. And so you’re opening or you’re going to do 45 next year. How many do you expect to do or have you done in 2023? And I’m wondering whether you can just comment on the kind of lift you’re seeing, how much of a sales lift better or worse than expected that would be helpful.

Deborah Derby: So we did about half that amount in 2023 but I would say we got a late start in 2023. So a lot of the work got underway in the second half of the year. So in terms of actually openings on them, a lot of those will actually drift into the first quarter of 2024. But based on the few that have opened and they’ve really just opened in the last few weeks, I mean we had the Marion, Sizzle just opened literally, I think it was the beginning of last week and we had Bennington, Vermont that opened the end of last week. So we’re just really seeing it but we’ve been very pleased with the soft openings on those.

Jake Bartlett: Great. I appreciate it.

Deborah Derby: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. The next question is coming from Fred Wightman of Wolfe Research.

Fred Wightman: Hey, guys. Good morning. The mid-single-digit comp outlook for 4Q, did you guys give an October comp number?